Remember, before you make the obvious mistake of "well, aktually, the atmosphere contains 5 orders of magnitude more water than that" -- we're not discussing a

Remember, before you make the obvious mistake of "well, aktually, the atmosphere contains 5 orders of magnitude more water than that" -- we're not discussing a linear system. Almost none of that atmospheric water resides at FL300. That's the point. You wildly adjust atmospheric parameters in the real world, with (apparently) not accurately accounting for them, and then claim your model is predictive? This is why modelling complex, chaotic systems is hard. I've done it, and that's why I would be embarrassed. Not because of the mistakes. Because I was so certain that my models were correct. The level of hubris displayed here is mind-boggling.