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So close, but not quite. The oil drop results (Millikan was less than 1% off, by the way) show the pressure on scientists to conform with the current status qu
by jellicle 7y ago
So close, but not quite.
The oil drop results (Millikan was less than 1% off, by the way) show the pressure on scientists to conform with the current status quo, the pressure NOT to release shocking or unexpected results. In climate science, that means underplaying the results, biasing them towards less catastrophic findings, and there's a great deal of evidence that that is what has been happening. For instance, the gold standard climate documents, the IPCC reports, represent a consensus and therefore if 99% of scientists believe 100 units of climate change is coming, and 1% of scientists believe no more than 30 units of climate change is coming, 30 units is what is reported (the amount everyone can agree on). This is a huge underreporting bias, only slowly corrected with each new report.
Good on you for your scientific approach, you just basically reversed the signs in your equation.
- samatman 7y agoI've read the AR5 synthesis report, and your description is simply inaccurate. To use your numbers, the IPCC reports that 99% of scientists believe 100 units of climate change is coming, and 1% believe no more than 30. It's less than 200 pages, I recommend actually reading it, rather than just guessing how the sausage is made, as you've done here.