6 ms·

Here's a systematic comparison of climate model predictions vs reality, since the 1970s. It turns out that the models have done a great job of predicting realit

Here's a systematic comparison of climate model predictions vs reality, since the 1970s. It turns out that the models have done a great job of predicting reality. https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-models-projected-global-warming https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-m... I'd be curious where your impression comes from, in terms of what sources of information you're receiving.

gbasin 7y ago
I was thinking of the same data, I guess it's not quite as clear as I thought, but the majority are overestimating the warming: https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Screen-Shot-2017-10-05-at-16.49.21.png https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Scree...
- SiempreViernes 7y ago
  If the idea is that the error in estimation is random around 0, you would expect about half to be overestimating. I think 5 out of 8 is not a very strong difference from 4 out of 8, which is the comparison that makes sense in this context.
mistermann 7y ago
Pardon the pedantry, but "-the- models have done a great job of predicting reality" seems like a bit of an overly strong statement. The link you give and the original article seem to be comparing a completely different set of models, and the main article even says there are "dozens still left to report....".
- wbeckler 7y ago
  This article includes the IPCC predictions, which are a very thorough consensus based on a range of models.
  - mistermann 7y ago
    Perhaps. I'm just pointing out that using ambiguous terms like "the models" is problematic, in that you and the original article both refer to "the models", but you are dealing with entirely separate sets of models. Perhaps literally all historic climate models have been accurate, I've read extremely enthusiastically received articles suggesting as much.

6 ms·

Here's a systematic comparison of climate model predictions vs reality, since the 1970s. It turns out that the models have done a great job of predicting realit

by wbeckler 7y ago

gbasin 7y ago
I was thinking of the same data, I guess it's not quite as clear as I thought, but the majority are overestimating the warming: https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Screen-Shot-2017-10-05-at-16.49.21.png https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Scree...
- SiempreViernes 7y ago
  If the idea is that the error in estimation is random around 0, you would expect about half to be overestimating. I think 5 out of 8 is not a very strong difference from 4 out of 8, which is the comparison that makes sense in this context.
mistermann 7y ago
Pardon the pedantry, but "-the- models have done a great job of predicting reality" seems like a bit of an overly strong statement. The link you give and the original article seem to be comparing a completely different set of models, and the main article even says there are "dozens still left to report....".
- wbeckler 7y ago
  This article includes the IPCC predictions, which are a very thorough consensus based on a range of models.
  - mistermann 7y ago
    Perhaps. I'm just pointing out that using ambiguous terms like "the models" is problematic, in that you and the original article both refer to "the models", but you are dealing with entirely separate sets of models. Perhaps literally all historic climate models have been accurate, I've read extremely enthusiastically received articles suggesting as much.