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Does anyone know if this is actually true? I was under the impression that climate models have been mostly overshooting reality over the past 40 years > One qu
by gbasin 7y ago
Does anyone know if this is actually true? I was under the impression that climate models have been mostly overshooting reality over the past 40 years
> One question modeling can help answer is called “climate sensitivity,” an estimate of how much warmer the planet will be once it has adjusted to atmospheric CO₂ at double the pre-industrial level. (At current rates, CO₂ could reach a doubling point in the last decades of this century.) This is the old, reliable number that’s come out to 3°C for 40 years. It was as close as anything gets to certainty.
- wbeckler 7y agoHere's a systematic comparison of climate model predictions vs reality, since the 1970s. It turns out that the models have done a great job of predicting reality. https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-models-projected-global-warming https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-m... I'd be curious where your impression comes from, in terms of what sources of information you're receiving.
- gbasin 7y agoI was thinking of the same data, I guess it's not quite as clear as I thought, but the majority are overestimating the warming: https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Screen-Shot-2017-10-05-at-16.49.21.png https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Scree...
- SiempreViernes 7y agoIf the idea is that the error in estimation is random around 0, you would expect about half to be overestimating. I think 5 out of 8 is not a very strong difference from 4 out of 8, which is the comparison that makes sense in this context.
- mistermann 7y agoPardon the pedantry, but "-the- models have done a great job of predicting reality" seems like a bit of an overly strong statement. The link you give and the original article seem to be comparing a completely different set of models, and the main article even says there are "dozens still left to report....".
- wbeckler 7y agoThis article includes the IPCC predictions, which are a very thorough consensus based on a range of models.
- mistermann 7y agoPerhaps. I'm just pointing out that using ambiguous terms like "the models" is problematic, in that you and the original article both refer to "the models", but you are dealing with entirely separate sets of models. Perhaps literally all historic climate models have been accurate, I've read extremely enthusiastically received articles suggesting as much.