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China will likely not be able to contain the virus at this stage. it also could mutate and change it's behavior.

by platz 7y ago

gwd 7y ago
> it also could mutate and change it's behavior. With flu / colds, my understanding is that it's typically milder mutations which end up thriving, as the milder the symptoms, the more likely people are to try to carry on with their normal lives rather than isolating themselves (and thus infect more people).
- ses1984 7y ago
  But entire populations don't mutate at once. If a virulent strain is active in thousands of people, it's going to be quite a while before the full impact of that epidemic is felt.
  - gwd 7y ago
    Oh, sure; I only meant to say, that normally the "evolutionary pressure" is for mutations to be less dangerous, rather than more dangerous. If anything, we should be hoping for those sorts of mutations.
- xbmcuser 7y ago
  This virus is not effecting everyone with the same intensity. A 10 year child didn't get sick but his Grand parents and parents did. His parents got him tested for Wuhan Virus anyway as they were scared about it and he tested positive for it. We will really find out how far this virus has spread by end of Feb.
ShorsHammer 7y ago
> could mutate and change it's behavior(sic) We could also get hit by an asteroid tomorrow and most life on Earth wiped out, guess that isn't newsworthy though. Hope people are worried about that danger, despite all the effort put in we routinely can't detect dangerous objects that come near Earth. Scary stuff. How many people have died outside China from this virus again? Is it zero? Last I looked it was zero human beings have died outside of China, perhaps I'm wrong.
- platz 7y ago
  Your priors are a little misconfigured
- kenneth 7y ago
  So you're saying that the people who die in China don't matter… no big deal, as long as it's not happening in my country. Pandemics don't care about borders, anyways. There's a very high probability this will spread outside China even with all the drastic measures we've taken.
  - ShorsHammer 7y ago
    In no way saying they don't matter. I'm saying it's overblown and ridiculous how scared people are, most media outlets have running 24 hour coverage of any snippet they can scrounge up. The authorities are taking care of it incredibly well, my main point was keep calm and carry on. Of course it will spread elsewhere in greater numbers, may even rival some rare ailments for deaths. Catching pneumonia is bad for everyone. A marginally higher risk of catching it isn't anything to stress about. Would you like to talk about the 5000 people who died on the roads in China last week alone? Because I would. Do their lives matter as much here? It's far more tragic given that nearly all of them weren't suffering pre-existing conditions. This is giant global experiment in human ability to logically discern risk and we seemed to have failed dramatically.
- platz 7y ago
  “I think we’re going to start seeing secondary spread in the United States in the next two or three weeks,” said Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former FDA commissioner. - https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/mayo-clinic-dr-gregory-poland-coronavirus-basically-at-a-pandemic.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/mayo-clinic-dr-gregory-polan...

China will likely not be able to contain the virus at this stage. it also could mutate and change it's behavior.

by platz 7y ago

China will likely not be able to contain the virus at this stage. it also could mutate and change it's behavior.

gwd 7y ago

> it also could mutate and change it's behavior. With flu / colds, my understanding is that it's typically milder mutations which end up thriving, as the milder the symptoms, the more likely people are to try to carry on with their normal lives rather than isolating themselves (and thus infect more people).

ses1984 7y ago
But entire populations don't mutate at once. If a virulent strain is active in thousands of people, it's going to be quite a while before the full impact of that epidemic is felt.
- gwd 7y ago
  Oh, sure; I only meant to say, that normally the "evolutionary pressure" is for mutations to be less dangerous, rather than more dangerous. If anything, we should be hoping for those sorts of mutations.
xbmcuser 7y ago
This virus is not effecting everyone with the same intensity. A 10 year child didn't get sick but his Grand parents and parents did. His parents got him tested for Wuhan Virus anyway as they were scared about it and he tested positive for it. We will really find out how far this virus has spread by end of Feb.

ShorsHammer 7y ago

> could mutate and change it's behavior(sic) We could also get hit by an asteroid tomorrow and most life on Earth wiped out, guess that isn't newsworthy though. Hope people are worried about that danger, despite all the effort put in we routinely can't detect dangerous objects that come near Earth. Scary stuff. How many people have died outside China from this virus again? Is it zero? Last I looked it was zero human beings have died outside of China, perhaps I'm wrong.

platz 7y ago
Your priors are a little misconfigured
kenneth 7y ago
So you're saying that the people who die in China don't matter… no big deal, as long as it's not happening in my country. Pandemics don't care about borders, anyways. There's a very high probability this will spread outside China even with all the drastic measures we've taken.
- ShorsHammer 7y ago
  In no way saying they don't matter. I'm saying it's overblown and ridiculous how scared people are, most media outlets have running 24 hour coverage of any snippet they can scrounge up. The authorities are taking care of it incredibly well, my main point was keep calm and carry on. Of course it will spread elsewhere in greater numbers, may even rival some rare ailments for deaths. Catching pneumonia is bad for everyone. A marginally higher risk of catching it isn't anything to stress about. Would you like to talk about the 5000 people who died on the roads in China last week alone? Because I would. Do their lives matter as much here? It's far more tragic given that nearly all of them weren't suffering pre-existing conditions. This is giant global experiment in human ability to logically discern risk and we seemed to have failed dramatically.
platz 7y ago
“I think we’re going to start seeing secondary spread in the United States in the next two or three weeks,” said Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former FDA commissioner. - https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/mayo-clinic-dr-gregory-poland-coronavirus-basically-at-a-pandemic.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/mayo-clinic-dr-gregory-polan...