5 ms·

Growth still looks exponential and attempts at containment seem to have failed.

qwerty456127 7y ago
Then why so small number of people get infected outside of China? I can hardly believe no case of infection could get unnoticed and not isolated successfully so far.
- dragonwriter 7y ago
  > Then why so small number of people get infected outside of China? Because we won't no how many people are infected today for a couple of weeks, it has an up to 14 day incubation period (and appears to be contagious during the incubation period.) Also the numbers are growing rapidly, especially in places with lots of contact with China. > I can hardly believe no case of infection could get unnoticed and not isolated successfully so far. A lot of negatives there but, yes, cases in the incubation period are likely to go unnoticed, since no symptoms exist.
  - qwerty456127 7y ago
    Then it intuitively seems there already are many people infected all over the world and we can't really prevent the infection from spreading, the measures being taken are futile. Brace yourself, buy grocery supplies and prepare your immune systems - start sleeping enough, eating healthy etc now.
    - solotronics 7y ago
      Not even joking I quit drinking and started eating healthier as I followed this. I have been watching and reading since it was a few hundred confirmed cases and I think it will become a very large outbreak.
      - NtroP 7y ago
        Quit drinking?! Alcohol kills viruses! Didn't you pay attention to the Andromeda Strain documentary? I plan on staying home and drinking heavily.
        qwerty456127 7y ago
        > Alcohol kills viruses! Does it? I'm actually curious if alcohol-based hand sanitizers should be used as an element in 2019-nCoV infection prevention.
      - qwerty456127 7y ago
        Having enough sleep is the most important thing AFAIK. You should also make sure you get enough vitamins and other micronutrients - vitamin supplements are popularly overrated as a cure but this doesn't mean they're useless: they don't really cure but their deficit (and you can hardly expect you are not deficient in any) certainly weakens the immune system. Another interesting thing I have recently found out about is l.reutrti (BioGaia Gastrus) yogurt - it boosts respiratory immunity by increasing histamine.
  - Accujack 7y ago
    It's not really a couple of weeks at this point... it's just after the 6th or so. That's the end of incubation period for people who would have been infected before the Chinese govt. quarantined Wuhan. New infected after that point will be from person to person contact with infected travelers prior to the quarantine. That's when we'll find out how many people caught the virus that we don't know about, and therefore how many have been spreading it without knowing.
- brutt 7y ago
  In my city (Lviv, Ukraine), number of viral pneumonia cases is jumped by 4x since Jan 26, but we have no test kits to confirm kind of virus they caused by. They can be caused by regular influenza, as usual, or they can be caused by corona. Nobody knows yet. :-/
  - kenneth 7y ago
    That's very scary! Very unlikely to be a coincidence.
  - agapon 7y ago
    Any link / proof ?
    - 0x38B 7y ago
      I had a look at some news from L'viv: "Two people who returned from China were hospitalized in Lviv with signs of ARD (acute respiratory disease)" (1) "Last week, nearly 13,000 people became ill in the Lviv region with influenza and SARS" (2) Primarily among kids and young adults, in the article they say the weather is especially conducive to the spread of the flu right now; I wouldn't automatically link it to the virus in China... 1: https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&nv=1&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=https://www.unian.ua/m/health/country/10854659-u-lvovi-z-oznakami-grz-gospitalizovano-dvoh-lyudey-yaki-povernulisya-z-kitayu.html&xid=17259,15700021,15700186,15700190,15700259,15700271,15700302&usg=ALkJrhiP0VMq_OHDJca_ZgkXavvktzhe4g https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&... 2: https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&nv=1&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=https://zaxid.net/na_lvivshhini_na_grip_i_grvi_za_minuliy_tizhden_zahvorilo_mayzhe_13_tis_lyudey_n1497070/amp&xid=17259,15700021,15700186,15700190,15700259,15700271,15700302&usg=ALkJrhgBgKobNr3ZXPmJuQrY_sgnekrDnA https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&...
      - netsharc 7y ago
        Hmm, is that article using a different definition of SARS, because 13000 with SARS should double the panic of this coronavirus...
- riyadparvez 7y ago
  Probably because of the precautions taken. It's like the old tale of "Why do we need IT support dept. if your system never breaks down?". Precautions probably helped containing the virus, not the other way around that we don't need to take precautions.
mytailorisrich 7y ago
It's difficult to say whether attempts at containment are failing. For example, Wuhan has a population of 11 million. This leaves a lot of scope for the number of new cases to grow while still being contained geographically. Considering the incubation period, we need to wait until the end of the week or next week to see how things go. With the stringent measures they have taken there should be an inflection sooner or later.
- computerfriend 7y ago
  Roughly 4 million people left Wuhan over the new year. The stringent measures they are now taking are too little too late. See for example the very slow rate at which border crossing points in Hong Kong are being closed.

Then why so small number of people get infected outside of China? I can hardly believe no case of infection could get unnoticed and not isolated successfully so far.

dragonwriter 7y ago
> Then why so small number of people get infected outside of China? Because we won't no how many people are infected today for a couple of weeks, it has an up to 14 day incubation period (and appears to be contagious during the incubation period.) Also the numbers are growing rapidly, especially in places with lots of contact with China. > I can hardly believe no case of infection could get unnoticed and not isolated successfully so far. A lot of negatives there but, yes, cases in the incubation period are likely to go unnoticed, since no symptoms exist.
- qwerty456127 7y ago
  Then it intuitively seems there already are many people infected all over the world and we can't really prevent the infection from spreading, the measures being taken are futile. Brace yourself, buy grocery supplies and prepare your immune systems - start sleeping enough, eating healthy etc now.
  - solotronics 7y ago
    Not even joking I quit drinking and started eating healthier as I followed this. I have been watching and reading since it was a few hundred confirmed cases and I think it will become a very large outbreak.
    - NtroP 7y ago
      Quit drinking?! Alcohol kills viruses! Didn't you pay attention to the Andromeda Strain documentary? I plan on staying home and drinking heavily.
      - qwerty456127 7y ago
        > Alcohol kills viruses! Does it? I'm actually curious if alcohol-based hand sanitizers should be used as an element in 2019-nCoV infection prevention.
    - qwerty456127 7y ago
      Having enough sleep is the most important thing AFAIK. You should also make sure you get enough vitamins and other micronutrients - vitamin supplements are popularly overrated as a cure but this doesn't mean they're useless: they don't really cure but their deficit (and you can hardly expect you are not deficient in any) certainly weakens the immune system. Another interesting thing I have recently found out about is l.reutrti (BioGaia Gastrus) yogurt - it boosts respiratory immunity by increasing histamine.
- Accujack 7y ago
  It's not really a couple of weeks at this point... it's just after the 6th or so. That's the end of incubation period for people who would have been infected before the Chinese govt. quarantined Wuhan. New infected after that point will be from person to person contact with infected travelers prior to the quarantine. That's when we'll find out how many people caught the virus that we don't know about, and therefore how many have been spreading it without knowing.
brutt 7y ago
In my city (Lviv, Ukraine), number of viral pneumonia cases is jumped by 4x since Jan 26, but we have no test kits to confirm kind of virus they caused by. They can be caused by regular influenza, as usual, or they can be caused by corona. Nobody knows yet. :-/
- kenneth 7y ago
  That's very scary! Very unlikely to be a coincidence.
- agapon 7y ago
  Any link / proof ?
  - 0x38B 7y ago
    I had a look at some news from L'viv: "Two people who returned from China were hospitalized in Lviv with signs of ARD (acute respiratory disease)" (1) "Last week, nearly 13,000 people became ill in the Lviv region with influenza and SARS" (2) Primarily among kids and young adults, in the article they say the weather is especially conducive to the spread of the flu right now; I wouldn't automatically link it to the virus in China... 1: https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&nv=1&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=https://www.unian.ua/m/health/country/10854659-u-lvovi-z-oznakami-grz-gospitalizovano-dvoh-lyudey-yaki-povernulisya-z-kitayu.html&xid=17259,15700021,15700186,15700190,15700259,15700271,15700302&usg=ALkJrhiP0VMq_OHDJca_ZgkXavvktzhe4g https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&... 2: https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&nv=1&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=https://zaxid.net/na_lvivshhini_na_grip_i_grvi_za_minuliy_tizhden_zahvorilo_mayzhe_13_tis_lyudey_n1497070/amp&xid=17259,15700021,15700186,15700190,15700259,15700271,15700302&usg=ALkJrhgBgKobNr3ZXPmJuQrY_sgnekrDnA https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&...
    - netsharc 7y ago
      Hmm, is that article using a different definition of SARS, because 13000 with SARS should double the panic of this coronavirus...
riyadparvez 7y ago
Probably because of the precautions taken. It's like the old tale of "Why do we need IT support dept. if your system never breaks down?". Precautions probably helped containing the virus, not the other way around that we don't need to take precautions.

mytailorisrich 7y ago

It's difficult to say whether attempts at containment are failing. For example, Wuhan has a population of 11 million. This leaves a lot of scope for the number of new cases to grow while still being contained geographically. Considering the incubation period, we need to wait until the end of the week or next week to see how things go. With the stringent measures they have taken there should be an inflection sooner or later.

computerfriend 7y ago
Roughly 4 million people left Wuhan over the new year. The stringent measures they are now taking are too little too late. See for example the very slow rate at which border crossing points in Hong Kong are being closed.