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I think the biggest counter-argument to this is the problem of "mal-investment". In a lot of ways the business cycle operates as an explore-exploit optimizer.
by dcolkitt 7y ago
I think the biggest counter-argument to this is the problem of "mal-investment". In a lot of ways the business cycle operates as an explore-exploit optimizer.
During boom periods, credit conditions are loose. Which allows for a large degree of innovation with new and speculative business models. This is important because as conditions and technologies change, the frontier space of what's viable needs to be explored. Tomorrow's economic titans are today's wild-eyed entrepreneurs.
However most of these crazy ideas turn out to be just that. That's where the importance of recessions come in. Credit crunches and market downturns impose economic and efficiency disciplines. Firms that were coasting by on good conditions without delivering real productivity gains are culled by the downturn.
The entire phase of the cycle is important to maintain a healthy economic ecosystem. My fear is that if we banish recessions to the dustbin of history, we'll find ourselves increasingly burdened with bad investments as a larger and larger share of the capital base. Instead of getting written off during a downturn, jubilant markets will just keep throwing good money after bad managers, broken business models and overhyped vaporware.
- sytelus 7y agoThis is like an argument that we need epidemics like plagues once in a while to shake out the weaklings. It turns out that epidemics are neither effective and also they take out strong as well as weak just like recession kills many good longer-term startups. On a broader view, the amount of cash that governments like US and China able to infuse in the system at moment's notice is unparalleled. The big 5 tech alone harbors cash of $0.5T and capable to weather any storms. If you think of US or China as one organism, they have achieved enough of collective wealth and enough cash just sloshing around that any new recession can be absorbed away.
- jaredtn 7y agoFantastically put! Just as periodic wildfires are necessary to clear the flammable brush and enable new growth, recessions will trim the fat and close down our least successful businesses. This creates more resources to pour into stable, or at least more promising, companies.