3 ms·

>WHAT is going to cause the crash? A black swan, like coronavirus shutting down China. >Which industry has a fundamental imbalance? Consumer debt and financi

>WHAT is going to cause the crash? A black swan, like coronavirus shutting down China. >Which industry has a fundamental imbalance? Consumer debt and financial services. How has our economic output been growing without much inflation or wage growth? How did we sell 17 million vehicles domestically last year when the average American has less than $1k in the bank? How are people buying phones for $600-700 every two years? Debt. Lots of it. And what's going to happen when consumer prices get driven up? Are people going to make their payments? I don't know, but it doesn't look great.

pertymcpert 7y ago
You think a $600 phone every 2 years is a big purchase? People used to buy desktop computers every few years, now they don’t. The mobile phone generates such a great improvement in efficiency (no more getting lost, always available GPS), instant information access (no need to go to a library or spend time finding it in leaflets/books/traditional sources). $600 every 2 years is an absolute steal for the most economically beneficial piece of personal technology ever created.
- unlinked_dll 7y ago
  If you don't make enough money to have any savings, any purchase of $600 at any time is "big." Like yea I can afford it because I make 3x what my friends and family do outside the Bay Area tech bubble, but I don't pretend that I'm not special because throwing a few hundred around doesn't cause me any stress about next month's rent, or credit card, or car payment, or health insurance bill.
  - koheripbal 7y ago
    This is the perspective of the younger generation. People 30+ (which is still, by far, the majority of the population), are not chronically poor.
  - pertymcpert 7y ago
    So is paying for food and rent. You have to balance the alternatives of not paying. Not having a capable smartphone in today's world will cost you far more than the price of the device.

pertymcpert 7y ago

You think a $600 phone every 2 years is a big purchase? People used to buy desktop computers every few years, now they don’t. The mobile phone generates such a great improvement in efficiency (no more getting lost, always available GPS), instant information access (no need to go to a library or spend time finding it in leaflets/books/traditional sources). $600 every 2 years is an absolute steal for the most economically beneficial piece of personal technology ever created.

unlinked_dll 7y ago
If you don't make enough money to have any savings, any purchase of $600 at any time is "big." Like yea I can afford it because I make 3x what my friends and family do outside the Bay Area tech bubble, but I don't pretend that I'm not special because throwing a few hundred around doesn't cause me any stress about next month's rent, or credit card, or car payment, or health insurance bill.
- koheripbal 7y ago
  This is the perspective of the younger generation. People 30+ (which is still, by far, the majority of the population), are not chronically poor.
- pertymcpert 7y ago
  So is paying for food and rent. You have to balance the alternatives of not paying. Not having a capable smartphone in today's world will cost you far more than the price of the device.