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My wife asked me at breakfast why the new virus is such a big deal: hundreds dying vs. the 5K to 10K babies and infants who die everyday in the world from dehyd

My wife asked me at breakfast why the new virus is such a big deal: hundreds dying vs. the 5K to 10K babies and infants who die everyday in the world from dehydration and/or starvation. My response was exponential growth of viruses and mutation into something very deadly. China is taking the outbreak seriously, locking down large and high population regions. I wondered if some of that is PR since after a previous outbreak they were accused of covering up (if I remember correctly).

koheripbal 7y ago
The most important thing to remember here is that we have ZERO idea how many people are truly infected in China. The Chinese gov't is publishing totally unreliable numbers on "confirmed". ...but the fact that confirmed cases are popping up all around the world, there is ZERO chance that the true number of infected people is 15,000 in China. That just doesn't make sense statistically.
- markus_zhang 7y ago
  However that's the only number you have.
- rediguanayum 7y ago
  The healthcare system in Wuhan is overwhelmed. The hospital are turning away patients with symptoms without evening screening unless their deathly ill due to a lack of resources: "Coronavirus Pummels Wuhan, a City Short of Supplies and Overwhelmed" https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/world/asia/china-coronavirus-wuhan.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/world/asia/china-coronavi... which means that the statistics are going to badly off at this point.
himinlomax 7y ago
The problem is that the numbers we have are those published by the Communist Party of China. They're taking the outbreak seriously ... now ... but they were putting whistleblowers in jail at the start of the epidemic.
klenwell 7y ago
I'd been asking this question myself for the last week. This graph from the NY Times on Friday finally helped me understand: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-coronavirus-contain.html#virulence https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-co... But I think you're right: a big part of the panic right now seems to be the uncertainty.
2019-nCoV 7y ago
Uncertainty and economic fallout. There's a non-zero probability this outbreak will not be contained, and if so would spell disaster for contemporary globalism.
jaredtn 7y ago
It’s the potential for exponential growth. The flu and world hunger are mostly known, contained quantities. While there’s a low probability that the coronavirus will become a pandemic, there is an extremely high downside if that happens. The danger comes not from the probability of the event but from the payoff.

koheripbal 7y ago

The most important thing to remember here is that we have ZERO idea how many people are truly infected in China. The Chinese gov't is publishing totally unreliable numbers on "confirmed". ...but the fact that confirmed cases are popping up all around the world, there is ZERO chance that the true number of infected people is 15,000 in China. That just doesn't make sense statistically.

markus_zhang 7y ago
However that's the only number you have.
rediguanayum 7y ago
The healthcare system in Wuhan is overwhelmed. The hospital are turning away patients with symptoms without evening screening unless their deathly ill due to a lack of resources: "Coronavirus Pummels Wuhan, a City Short of Supplies and Overwhelmed" https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/world/asia/china-coronavirus-wuhan.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/world/asia/china-coronavi... which means that the statistics are going to badly off at this point.

himinlomax 7y ago

The problem is that the numbers we have are those published by the Communist Party of China. They're taking the outbreak seriously ... now ... but they were putting whistleblowers in jail at the start of the epidemic.

klenwell 7y ago

I'd been asking this question myself for the last week. This graph from the NY Times on Friday finally helped me understand: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-coronavirus-contain.html#virulence https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-co... But I think you're right: a big part of the panic right now seems to be the uncertainty.

2019-nCoV 7y ago

Uncertainty and economic fallout. There's a non-zero probability this outbreak will not be contained, and if so would spell disaster for contemporary globalism.

jaredtn 7y ago

It’s the potential for exponential growth. The flu and world hunger are mostly known, contained quantities. While there’s a low probability that the coronavirus will become a pandemic, there is an extremely high downside if that happens. The danger comes not from the probability of the event but from the payoff.