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Ask HN: Should I be worried about the PANIC around the current situations, will they act as a rescission trigger? Can I assume a proportional impact on crypto-c

Ask HN: Should I be worried about the PANIC around the current situations, will they act as a rescission trigger? Can I assume a proportional impact on crypto-currency market as well? More importantly, I'm considering a move from a Bn$ organization to a safety concerned mobile-app product startup, How to access whether a start-up can survive if the situation end-up on the negative side, in the next 6 months.

cheschire 7y ago
People have been saying they expect a recession in the next 2 years for the last 2 years and now is no different. If it was easy to predict when the least risky time is to make a risky decision, then it wouldn't be risky, gambling wouldn't be a thing, and life would be forever boring.
- allovernow 7y ago
  You're not wrong, but considering other indicators, yield curve in particular, this could be a viable trigger. Depending on how this virus plays out, the only question is not if or when but how long the Chinese industrial complex will be suppressed. Those are the raw and finished manufacturing goods that power a substantial proportion of the world economy, and there will be cascading effects.
- koheripbal 7y ago
  2016 was supposed to be the year the bubble crashes. "They" also said their would be a double dip in 2012. I've heard so many doom and gloom predictions in the past - but the one thing they all have in common is a complete lack of specifics. WHAT is going to cause the crash? Which industry has a fundamental imbalance? It's always just some vague notion that "something" isn't right.
  - unlinked_dll 7y ago
    >WHAT is going to cause the crash? A black swan, like coronavirus shutting down China. >Which industry has a fundamental imbalance? Consumer debt and financial services. How has our economic output been growing without much inflation or wage growth? How did we sell 17 million vehicles domestically last year when the average American has less than $1k in the bank? How are people buying phones for $600-700 every two years? Debt. Lots of it. And what's going to happen when consumer prices get driven up? Are people going to make their payments? I don't know, but it doesn't look great.
    - pertymcpert 7y ago
      You think a $600 phone every 2 years is a big purchase? People used to buy desktop computers every few years, now they don’t. The mobile phone generates such a great improvement in efficiency (no more getting lost, always available GPS), instant information access (no need to go to a library or spend time finding it in leaflets/books/traditional sources). $600 every 2 years is an absolute steal for the most economically beneficial piece of personal technology ever created.
      - unlinked_dll 7y ago
        If you don't make enough money to have any savings, any purchase of $600 at any time is "big." Like yea I can afford it because I make 3x what my friends and family do outside the Bay Area tech bubble, but I don't pretend that I'm not special because throwing a few hundred around doesn't cause me any stress about next month's rent, or credit card, or car payment, or health insurance bill.
        koheripbal 7y ago
        This is the perspective of the younger generation. People 30+ (which is still, by far, the majority of the population), are not chronically poor.
        pertymcpert 7y ago
        So is paying for food and rent. You have to balance the alternatives of not paying. Not having a capable smartphone in today's world will cost you far more than the price of the device.
zaphod420 7y ago
I'm bullish on cryptocurrency.

cheschire 7y ago

People have been saying they expect a recession in the next 2 years for the last 2 years and now is no different. If it was easy to predict when the least risky time is to make a risky decision, then it wouldn't be risky, gambling wouldn't be a thing, and life would be forever boring.

allovernow 7y ago
You're not wrong, but considering other indicators, yield curve in particular, this could be a viable trigger. Depending on how this virus plays out, the only question is not if or when but how long the Chinese industrial complex will be suppressed. Those are the raw and finished manufacturing goods that power a substantial proportion of the world economy, and there will be cascading effects.
koheripbal 7y ago
2016 was supposed to be the year the bubble crashes. "They" also said their would be a double dip in 2012. I've heard so many doom and gloom predictions in the past - but the one thing they all have in common is a complete lack of specifics. WHAT is going to cause the crash? Which industry has a fundamental imbalance? It's always just some vague notion that "something" isn't right.
- unlinked_dll 7y ago
  >WHAT is going to cause the crash? A black swan, like coronavirus shutting down China. >Which industry has a fundamental imbalance? Consumer debt and financial services. How has our economic output been growing without much inflation or wage growth? How did we sell 17 million vehicles domestically last year when the average American has less than $1k in the bank? How are people buying phones for $600-700 every two years? Debt. Lots of it. And what's going to happen when consumer prices get driven up? Are people going to make their payments? I don't know, but it doesn't look great.
  - pertymcpert 7y ago
    You think a $600 phone every 2 years is a big purchase? People used to buy desktop computers every few years, now they don’t. The mobile phone generates such a great improvement in efficiency (no more getting lost, always available GPS), instant information access (no need to go to a library or spend time finding it in leaflets/books/traditional sources). $600 every 2 years is an absolute steal for the most economically beneficial piece of personal technology ever created.
    - unlinked_dll 7y ago
      If you don't make enough money to have any savings, any purchase of $600 at any time is "big." Like yea I can afford it because I make 3x what my friends and family do outside the Bay Area tech bubble, but I don't pretend that I'm not special because throwing a few hundred around doesn't cause me any stress about next month's rent, or credit card, or car payment, or health insurance bill.
      - koheripbal 7y ago
        This is the perspective of the younger generation. People 30+ (which is still, by far, the majority of the population), are not chronically poor.
      - pertymcpert 7y ago
        So is paying for food and rent. You have to balance the alternatives of not paying. Not having a capable smartphone in today's world will cost you far more than the price of the device.

zaphod420 7y ago

I'm bullish on cryptocurrency.