4 ms·
A virus with R0 of 2 and a mortality rate of 2% would kill 1% of the world population if no containment measures are taken. That would be 75 million people.
by xorfish 7y ago
A virus with R0 of 2 and a mortality rate of 2% would kill 1% of the world population if no containment measures are taken. That would be 75 million people.
- K0SM0S 7y agoThanks, TIL. For those like me who paused at R₀ (r-naught), quote from wiki[1]: > R-naught is the average number of people infected from one other person, for example, Ebola has an r-naught of two, so on average, a person who has Ebola will pass it on to two other people. See “Limitations of R₀” too: when solely derived from math models, “values [of R₀] should be used with caution” and “this severely limits its usefulness.”. As I understand, take it for what it is: model not gospel. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number
- xorfish 7y agoYes, quarantines and public awareness will reduce the spread quite significantly. Hopefully to the point that less than one person gets infected per sick individual.