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China = 20% of global GDP -> shutdown until Feb 17th. China = ??% of global supply chain -> shutdown until Feb 17th. This is the current status quo. If the si
by howmayiannoyyou 7y ago
China = 20% of global GDP -> shutdown until Feb 17th.
China = ??% of global supply chain -> shutdown until Feb 17th.
This is the current status quo. If the situation isn't controlled by Feb 13th you can kiss at least 1/3 of global GDP goodbye.
And, don't get me started on possible outbreaks elsewhere.
- garaetjjte 7y agoWhat will happen 17th?
- cagenut 7y agoaccording to various models the infection rate should shift from exponential growth to an s-curve function where growth rapidly falls off, the first stage of containment, somewhere around the 15th. the 17th is the monday after that, so many schools and business and cities are planning for everyone to just stay home until the 17th (at least).
- blippage 7y agoCouldn't that thinking be flawed, though? I mean, it's only not exponential now because of effective containment. You have to maintain containment until the disease no longer exists. If you don't do that, and the disease exists, then the virus will spread exponentially as soon as containment stops. It seems to me that the "various models" assume the non-existence of containment attempts. In that case, you have to be careful you're not drawing the wrong conclusions.
- sfkdjf9j3j 7y agoWhich models?
- gruez 7y ago>according to various models the infection rate should shift from exponential growth to an s-curve function where growth rapidly falls off I'm sort of skeptical of such models because the quality of their output is entirely dependent on the data coming in. There were anecdotal accounts of hospitals in China running out of test kits. Limited test kits -> limited diagnosis -> underreported infection numbers -> misleading models. Garbage in, garbage out.
- panarky 7y agoInfections are increasing approximately 20% per day. When you see the new daily infection rate drop to 10% or less then that's a pretty good signal that we're reaching the top of the S-curve and nearing containment. The big question is if that will happen before healthcare and quarantine capacity is exceeded.
- jmnicolas 7y agoStop spreading FUD. There have been a couple hundred deaths. Even if the numbers have been minimized, compare this to the 40'000 deaths due to the flu in the US every year ...
- appleiigs 7y agoOk, then do you think everyone should just open up and start travelling again?
- jmnicolas 7y agoI wouldn't travel to China now, but I wouldn't hesitate to travel anywhere else in the world (I'll gladly accept any donations to prove my point ;-)
- londons_explore 7y agoI'd even happily travel to china. My worry would be the risk of being stuck somewhere when my planned transport is cancelled rather than being infected and dying. 300 deaths out of over a billion people is nothing.
- jmnicolas 7y agohttps://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h... According to this link there was 14451 cases in China, even if statistically insignificant (something like 0.001%) it's a bit much for my taste, especially if we consider that the Chinese authorities could have massively downplayed the number of infected persons.
- xorfish 7y agoA virus with R0 of 2 and a mortality rate of 2% would kill 1% of the world population if no containment measures are taken. That would be 75 million people.