5 ms·

It seems to me likely that the number of reported cases of this virus is much lower than the actual number. There are various plausible reasons, eg incubation p

It seems to me likely that the number of reported cases of this virus is much lower than the actual number. There are various plausible reasons, eg incubation periods, people not going to the doctors with flu like symptoms, authorities wanting to look in control of the situation. A reason that might be bad is that it implies the virus is more contagious or at least more widespread than previously thought[1], and therefore more people will suffer from it. A reason that might be good is that it could imply that the virus is much less deadly than previously thought[1], assuming that the deaths aren’t underreported in the same proportion as infections. I don’t really have any intuition as to which of these effects is more significant. [1] I think studies probably try to take underreporting into account and so by “previously thought,” I mean naïvely implied by the statistics.

axiom92 7y ago
From the article: "the man never became sick enough to require hospitalization, has had contact with few people and has been “self-isolating” at home since returning, leaving only left to seek outpatient medical treatment on two occasions. "
- 14 7y ago
  This is what really surprised me. He has this virus but is leaving his home to seek outpatient treatment. Really? So if he needs gas along the way did they suggest he should not make any stops? At the place he is being treated did he just walk in through the front doors touching the handles that other people will later touch? I am so confused on how this man is self isolating but also doing a couple of appointments. Did they take him via ambulance? Why would they not just go to his home and reduce risk of spreading it?
istorical 7y ago
The number of reported cases in China is pretty much unanimously understood to be dramatically undercounted because there is simply a tremendous shortage of testing kits. There are videos showing nurses in Wuhan hospitals bemoaning this and social media posts suggesting this, patients are being turned away unless they are dying to go home and self isolate and rest, in some cases receiving injections daily but otherwise being told to return home. Firsthand accounts by local journalists are one of the best ways we have to understand what's actually going on behind the Great Firewall of journalism. One of the best is this semi-celebrity lawyer/journalist in Wuhan who is leaking video to YouTube visiting the outbreak hospitals (he's also pretty much a wanted man at this point by Chinese authorities), you can turn on subtitles for English: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AI3R41dGnU&ab_channel=CoronavirusLiveArchive https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AI3R41dGnU&ab_channel=Coron...
- amylene 7y ago
  These firsthand accounts are great for identifying potentially systemic issues that could cause under reporting. However, other than pointing to directionality, it is dangerous to use them to estimate the magnitude.
  - cliqueiq 7y ago
    > systemic issues I like that euphemism
DataWorker 7y ago
And if that were true maybe it should be downplayed since the ultimate catastrophe will be impact on medical unfrastructure, perhaps economic.

axiom92 7y ago

From the article: "the man never became sick enough to require hospitalization, has had contact with few people and has been “self-isolating” at home since returning, leaving only left to seek outpatient medical treatment on two occasions. "

14 7y ago
This is what really surprised me. He has this virus but is leaving his home to seek outpatient treatment. Really? So if he needs gas along the way did they suggest he should not make any stops? At the place he is being treated did he just walk in through the front doors touching the handles that other people will later touch? I am so confused on how this man is self isolating but also doing a couple of appointments. Did they take him via ambulance? Why would they not just go to his home and reduce risk of spreading it?

istorical 7y ago

The number of reported cases in China is pretty much unanimously understood to be dramatically undercounted because there is simply a tremendous shortage of testing kits. There are videos showing nurses in Wuhan hospitals bemoaning this and social media posts suggesting this, patients are being turned away unless they are dying to go home and self isolate and rest, in some cases receiving injections daily but otherwise being told to return home. Firsthand accounts by local journalists are one of the best ways we have to understand what's actually going on behind the Great Firewall of journalism. One of the best is this semi-celebrity lawyer/journalist in Wuhan who is leaking video to YouTube visiting the outbreak hospitals (he's also pretty much a wanted man at this point by Chinese authorities), you can turn on subtitles for English: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AI3R41dGnU&ab_channel=CoronavirusLiveArchive https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AI3R41dGnU&ab_channel=Coron...

amylene 7y ago
These firsthand accounts are great for identifying potentially systemic issues that could cause under reporting. However, other than pointing to directionality, it is dangerous to use them to estimate the magnitude.
- cliqueiq 7y ago
  > systemic issues I like that euphemism

DataWorker 7y ago

And if that were true maybe it should be downplayed since the ultimate catastrophe will be impact on medical unfrastructure, perhaps economic.