3 ms·

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... Quote: 75 8

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... Quote: 75 815 individuals have been infected in Wuhan as of Jan 25, 2020. The epidemic doubling time was 6·4 days. We estimated that if there was no reduction in transmissibility, the Wuhan epidemic would peak around April, 2020, and local epidemics across cities in mainland China would lag by 1–2 weeks.

dchichkov 7y ago
Yes, 75815 individuals in Wuhan on Jan/25, with 4-6 day doubling is a more reasonable number. Better fits end of January, 3/200 of Japanese evacuation statistics and 4/400 of the Korean one. Assuming ~11M Wuhan population.
gstipi 7y ago
To my layman's ears, some of the conclusions in the cited Lancet article sound chilling, e.g. "...given the substantial volume of case importation from Wuhan, local epidemics are probably already growing exponentially in multiple major Chinese cities. Given that Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen together accounted for more than 50% of all outbound international air travel in mainland China, other countries would likely be at risk of experiencing 2019-nCoV epidemics during the first half of 2020." Any comments on the soundness of the methodology used?