5 ms·

We can all use excellent reminders like this about how random outcomes can be distributed really unevenly. For example, attributing even some success to random

We can all use excellent reminders like this about how random outcomes can be distributed really unevenly. For example, attributing even some success to randomness (a reasonable assumption, I would think) at least N fraction of successful people you see in life are just lucky! If 1000 people flip a fair coin 10 times, there's a really good chance (60%+) someone gets 10 heads in a row! Optimize your existence as you see fit with that information! Generate more N, spend more time with your family, try to move the needle on the amount of randomness that contributes to your personal definition of success, etc.

ska 7y ago
there's a really good chance (60%+) someone gets 10 heads in a row! You can make this 100% if it is a tourney style flip off. This seems obvious but more subtle forms of it exist in the world where randomness is involved but some results are determined; i.e. the difference between someone will see 10 heads in a row vs. this particular person will.
hans1729 7y ago
> Optimize your existence as you see fit with that information! That sounds very intriguing, yet I don't really have an aha!-moment. Care to give an example or two from your personal experience?
- pkilgore 7y ago
  Sure. I quit a job that put me in the top 5% of salaries to do something I loved that gave me more time outside work, because I realized the woman I share my life with was my "ten heads in a row" and not the job that depressed me. Another example is that rather than sinking my time into one project, one hobby, one organization, I tend to jump around a lot. That isn't to say I am constantly in that state, I've just learned that eventually the coin will flip heads and I'll be working with great people on something really interesting that is worth my time to go deep. "Worth" here, not necessarily being financial. It might be educational, or a cause I'm passionate about. Or fun. This optimizes for N.
  - pkilgore 7y ago
    Also moving from law to programming, I changed the effect of randomness on my success. In law, I could kick ass, and still lose a case, because of many things that are likely to be depressing to list in public. In programming, if I kick ass, it deterministicaly leads to something that works! That is good. Sure there is politics and popularity and all those normal human problems too, but those same problems existed in law, so I'm not losing anything there.

ska 7y ago

there's a really good chance (60%+) someone gets 10 heads in a row! You can make this 100% if it is a tourney style flip off. This seems obvious but more subtle forms of it exist in the world where randomness is involved but some results are determined; i.e. the difference between someone will see 10 heads in a row vs. this particular person will.

hans1729 7y ago

> Optimize your existence as you see fit with that information! That sounds very intriguing, yet I don't really have an aha!-moment. Care to give an example or two from your personal experience?

pkilgore 7y ago
Sure. I quit a job that put me in the top 5% of salaries to do something I loved that gave me more time outside work, because I realized the woman I share my life with was my "ten heads in a row" and not the job that depressed me. Another example is that rather than sinking my time into one project, one hobby, one organization, I tend to jump around a lot. That isn't to say I am constantly in that state, I've just learned that eventually the coin will flip heads and I'll be working with great people on something really interesting that is worth my time to go deep. "Worth" here, not necessarily being financial. It might be educational, or a cause I'm passionate about. Or fun. This optimizes for N.
- pkilgore 7y ago
  Also moving from law to programming, I changed the effect of randomness on my success. In law, I could kick ass, and still lose a case, because of many things that are likely to be depressing to list in public. In programming, if I kick ass, it deterministicaly leads to something that works! That is good. Sure there is politics and popularity and all those normal human problems too, but those same problems existed in law, so I'm not losing anything there.