The estimate requires some extrapolation based on other epidemics. Dying from it isn't going to take as long as recovering so you should expect a particularly l

The estimate requires some extrapolation based on other epidemics. Dying from it isn't going to take as long as recovering so you should expect a particularly large skew this early. But more generally you'd expect more mild cases to go underreported, be a lower priority for testing (which seems to be the bottleneck for reporting cases in some areas), etc.