4 ms·

Is testing fast now? Do patients who don't have symptoms spread it effectively? I'm not an expert, but I see two main possibilities: It can be contained. Or it

Is testing fast now? Do patients who don't have symptoms spread it effectively? I'm not an expert, but I see two main possibilities: It can be contained. Or it will spread all around the world and only vaccines will later make it go away, if a large enough percentage of the population is vaccinated. How long does it take to create a vaccine nowadays? And mass production...

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
eugenijusr 7y ago
Here's a Twitter thread from an expert with thoughts on what we'll need to do if it's not contained: https://twitter.com/t_inglesby/status/1221434570714669056 https://twitter.com/t_inglesby/status/1221434570714669056
- JohnJamesRambo 7y ago
  It’s so infuriating to try to read that great info in a million disjointed tweets. I don’t get Twitter character limits at all in the year 2020.
  - mytailorisrich 7y ago
    It's so infuriating to see people using Twitter for what it's not, and also in this case for causing undue worry.
    - pferde 7y ago
      It's indeed sad, but apparently many people think "if it's good enough for the POTUS, it's good enough for me!"
    - netsharc 7y ago
      I hate people using it as a freaking Powerpoint replacement... Bullet point after tedious bullet point, great job presenting your knowledge, Mr. Expert! /s
  - squarefoot 7y ago
    Probably it's just the wrong tool for this job.
- radicalbyte 7y ago
  It's heartening to see the way that we're reacting to this threat. We need to be doing exactly the same thing in the fight against climate change.
pishpash 7y ago
The virus changes rapidly, not unlike the flu. A vaccine isn't likely to be effective to eradicate it, and it will likely stay around as a permanent epidemic like the flu or HIV. Virulence can increase or decrease randomly in the future, but the spread doesn't seem like it can be contained, since a perfect quarantine can't be maintained at this scale. We'll have to live with a new virus and pay the price of some natural selection.
- sanxiyn 7y ago
  Polio also changes rapidly (it's faster than HIV), but we are nearing polio eradication with vaccine. Relationship between vaccine and mutation is complex.
  - hanniabu 7y ago
    I didn't know it changed, let alone that fast. Really makes it all the more impressive.
- DelightOne 7y ago
  Does immunity still hold for the changed virus?
  - jimworm 7y ago
    Depends whether the targeted antigen has changed. Best case (for humans) is if it couldn't escape the targeting without deactivating the virus. RNA viruses do change quickly, but influenza's probably on a different level with its multi-segment, randomly assorted genome.
avery-dawn 7y ago
> How long does it take to create a vaccine nowadays? https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3047956/china-coronavirus-hong-kong-researchers-have https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/artic... From this article: “If the vaccine appears effective and safe in a number of animal species, it will go into clinical trials on humans. This takes at least one year even if expedited,” Yuen said.
- hanniabu 7y ago
  Is that including production? Or just getting approval?
- neuronic 7y ago
  Even fast-tracked development will take 1-2 years. Edit: sorry, I basically repeated what the comment above said. Somehow I overlooked that...
- tim333 7y ago
  Inovio of San Diego already have a computer designed but untested DNA vaccine. In the past DNA vaccines have not been approved for use in humans but they are partnered with a Chinese company and I'm not sure the Chinese will be as conservative as the FDA in terms of trying things. [pasted from another thread] Their previous Elboa vaccine seemed to work well in tests though I think it never made it to the field. http://ir.inovio.com/news-and-media/news/press-release-details/2019/Inovios-Ebola-Vaccine-Delivered-Intradermally-Demonstrates-100-Immunogenicity-in-a-Clinical-Study-Published-in-The-Journal-of-Infectious-Diseases/default.aspx http://ir.inovio.com/news-and-media/news/press-release-detai... I sometime think the testing protocols are a bit over cautious when you have a candidate that is probably safe and quite likely effective.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

eugenijusr 7y ago

Here's a Twitter thread from an expert with thoughts on what we'll need to do if it's not contained: https://twitter.com/t_inglesby/status/1221434570714669056 https://twitter.com/t_inglesby/status/1221434570714669056

JohnJamesRambo 7y ago
It’s so infuriating to try to read that great info in a million disjointed tweets. I don’t get Twitter character limits at all in the year 2020.
- mytailorisrich 7y ago
  It's so infuriating to see people using Twitter for what it's not, and also in this case for causing undue worry.
  - pferde 7y ago
    It's indeed sad, but apparently many people think "if it's good enough for the POTUS, it's good enough for me!"
  - netsharc 7y ago
    I hate people using it as a freaking Powerpoint replacement... Bullet point after tedious bullet point, great job presenting your knowledge, Mr. Expert! /s
- squarefoot 7y ago
  Probably it's just the wrong tool for this job.
radicalbyte 7y ago
It's heartening to see the way that we're reacting to this threat. We need to be doing exactly the same thing in the fight against climate change.

pishpash 7y ago

The virus changes rapidly, not unlike the flu. A vaccine isn't likely to be effective to eradicate it, and it will likely stay around as a permanent epidemic like the flu or HIV. Virulence can increase or decrease randomly in the future, but the spread doesn't seem like it can be contained, since a perfect quarantine can't be maintained at this scale. We'll have to live with a new virus and pay the price of some natural selection.

sanxiyn 7y ago
Polio also changes rapidly (it's faster than HIV), but we are nearing polio eradication with vaccine. Relationship between vaccine and mutation is complex.
- hanniabu 7y ago
  I didn't know it changed, let alone that fast. Really makes it all the more impressive.
DelightOne 7y ago
Does immunity still hold for the changed virus?
- jimworm 7y ago
  Depends whether the targeted antigen has changed. Best case (for humans) is if it couldn't escape the targeting without deactivating the virus. RNA viruses do change quickly, but influenza's probably on a different level with its multi-segment, randomly assorted genome.

avery-dawn 7y ago

> How long does it take to create a vaccine nowadays? https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3047956/china-coronavirus-hong-kong-researchers-have https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/artic... From this article: “If the vaccine appears effective and safe in a number of animal species, it will go into clinical trials on humans. This takes at least one year even if expedited,” Yuen said.

hanniabu 7y ago
Is that including production? Or just getting approval?
neuronic 7y ago
Even fast-tracked development will take 1-2 years. Edit: sorry, I basically repeated what the comment above said. Somehow I overlooked that...
tim333 7y ago
Inovio of San Diego already have a computer designed but untested DNA vaccine. In the past DNA vaccines have not been approved for use in humans but they are partnered with a Chinese company and I'm not sure the Chinese will be as conservative as the FDA in terms of trying things. [pasted from another thread] Their previous Elboa vaccine seemed to work well in tests though I think it never made it to the field. http://ir.inovio.com/news-and-media/news/press-release-details/2019/Inovios-Ebola-Vaccine-Delivered-Intradermally-Demonstrates-100-Immunogenicity-in-a-Clinical-Study-Published-in-The-Journal-of-Infectious-Diseases/default.aspx http://ir.inovio.com/news-and-media/news/press-release-detai... I sometime think the testing protocols are a bit over cautious when you have a candidate that is probably safe and quite likely effective.