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Japan confirms coronavirus infections without symptoms
- Gravityloss 7y agoIs testing fast now? Do patients who don't have symptoms spread it effectively? I'm not an expert, but I see two main possibilities: It can be contained. Or it will spread all around the world and only vaccines will later make it go away, if a large enough percentage of the population is vaccinated. How long does it take to create a vaccine nowadays? And mass production...
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- eugenijusr 7y agoHere's a Twitter thread from an expert with thoughts on what we'll need to do if it's not contained: https://twitter.com/t_inglesby/status/1221434570714669056 https://twitter.com/t_inglesby/status/1221434570714669056
- JohnJamesRambo 7y agoIt’s so infuriating to try to read that great info in a million disjointed tweets. I don’t get Twitter character limits at all in the year 2020.
- mytailorisrich 7y agoIt's so infuriating to see people using Twitter for what it's not, and also in this case for causing undue worry.
- squarefoot 7y agoProbably it's just the wrong tool for this job.
- radicalbyte 7y agoIt's heartening to see the way that we're reacting to this threat. We need to be doing exactly the same thing in the fight against climate change.
- pishpash 7y agoThe virus changes rapidly, not unlike the flu. A vaccine isn't likely to be effective to eradicate it, and it will likely stay around as a permanent epidemic like the flu or HIV. Virulence can increase or decrease randomly in the future, but the spread doesn't seem like it can be contained, since a perfect quarantine can't be maintained at this scale. We'll have to live with a new virus and pay the price of some natural selection.
- sanxiyn 7y agoPolio also changes rapidly (it's faster than HIV), but we are nearing polio eradication with vaccine. Relationship between vaccine and mutation is complex.
- hanniabu 7y agoI didn't know it changed, let alone that fast. Really makes it all the more impressive.
- DelightOne 7y agoDoes immunity still hold for the changed virus?
- jimworm 7y agoDepends whether the targeted antigen has changed. Best case (for humans) is if it couldn't escape the targeting without deactivating the virus. RNA viruses do change quickly, but influenza's probably on a different level with its multi-segment, randomly assorted genome.
- avery-dawn 7y ago> How long does it take to create a vaccine nowadays? https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3047956/china-coronavirus-hong-kong-researchers-have https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/artic... From this article: “If the vaccine appears effective and safe in a number of animal species, it will go into clinical trials on humans. This takes at least one year even if expedited,” Yuen said.
- hanniabu 7y agoIs that including production? Or just getting approval?
- neuronic 7y agoEven fast-tracked development will take 1-2 years. Edit: sorry, I basically repeated what the comment above said. Somehow I overlooked that...
- tim333 7y agoInovio of San Diego already have a computer designed but untested DNA vaccine. In the past DNA vaccines have not been approved for use in humans but they are partnered with a Chinese company and I'm not sure the Chinese will be as conservative as the FDA in terms of trying things. [pasted from another thread] Their previous Elboa vaccine seemed to work well in tests though I think it never made it to the field. http://ir.inovio.com/news-and-media/news/press-release-details/2019/Inovios-Ebola-Vaccine-Delivered-Intradermally-Demonstrates-100-Immunogenicity-in-a-Clinical-Study-Published-in-The-Journal-of-Infectious-Diseases/default.aspx http://ir.inovio.com/news-and-media/news/press-release-detai... I sometime think the testing protocols are a bit over cautious when you have a candidate that is probably safe and quite likely effective.
- choeger 7y agoThat brings up the question of how many cases there really are? How many people have been infected without any symptoms already?
- TorKlingberg 7y agoIn some ways that's positive. If the number of cases is higher than thought, then the deadliness is lower.
- hanniabu 7y agoThat depends. They just may not be showing symptoms yet. If that's the case then these are lagging indicators of what's to come. There could be thousands that have the virus and won't start to show it for another few days. And those would have been interacting with others that could catch it and might not show it for a week or so.
- taneq 7y ago75% of those cases are less than 5 days old, 50% are less than 2-3 days. Assuming it takes a day or two for symptoms to ramp up, the death count so far is half or less of what it will be for the 7.7 now infected. Just from these numbers, I'd expect it to end up around 4.5%.
- netsharc 7y agoMissing "[of Coronavirus]". Yeah the guideline doesn't say it, and we probably can assume what infection they're talking about, but.. Reports say the German man who got the virus after having a business meeting with a Chinese visitor said he had a mild fever in the weekend and slept it off, and came to work on Monday, which must mean he had recovered. Reading that makes me think the virus isn't a death sentence like many are worried it is.
- contravariant 7y agoIt's only a 3%(-ish) chance of dying going by numbers published so far. That's much higher than a regular flu though.
- sanxiyn 7y agoIt's ~20% "severe" plus fatal, per China CDC. Since many people who would end up dead is currently not dead, in-progress fatality rate is not very informative.
- adrianN 7y agoThe numbers published so far are probably biased to the high side because only serious cases seek treatment.
- edejong 7y agoHow do you get to that number?
- contravariant 7y agoI'm just dividing the number of (known) deaths by the number of known infections. As other's have pointed out this isn't the most reliable way of doing it, but it gives some indication.
- edejong 7y agoNo, it does not give any information for a multitude of reasons. 1. Deaths are lagged by known cases 2. Both are skewed distributions 3. These people might have received professional care when it was available. During an outbreak, the available health care will decline.
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- zmmmmm 7y agoI wonder what the specificity of the test is. Even 99% would still mean that out of 200 passengers, these two would just be the expected number of false positives, unless they have done a confirmatory test on them.
- sanxiyn 7y agoThey are professionals. Let's give them benefit of doubt, shall we? (I don't know about this specific case, but yes confirmatory testing is usual protocol.)
- Galanwe 7y agoI see a lot of people discussing the fatality rate, and trying to lower the importance of being infected based on that. We should keep in mind that "surviving" the virus does not mean you will live happily ever after. A lot of SARS patients that "recovered" ended up with lung or kidney disease afterward.
- unnouinceput 7y agoQuote: "Two passengers refused to take the test. And health officials say they will continue to persuade them to get tested.". Wait, what? wtf is that even possible with a government chartered flight? And then what, the 2 were just left to go home and officials come to them every day "hey, wanna get tested today?"
- 9nGQluzmnq3M 7y agoThe article says a "new type of coronavirus", which is presumably a misunderstanding on the reporter's part; it seems more likely that these are asymptomatic carriers of the same virus. However, if there really is a symptomless or near-symptomless variant, this would actually be great news, since it would spread rapidly and provide immunity against virulent strains. And this in fact is what appeared to happen with the Spanish flu, where natural selection tended to prefer less virulent strains. (Really sick people stay home/hospitalized and don't spread the virus; less sick or asymptomatic carriers move around and spread it.)
- yorwba 7y ago"New type of coronavirus" is is the current official name for the coronavirus spreading from Wuhan.
- incompatible 7y agoHaven't the genetic sequences shown that there's so far only one variant? It's not surprising that there would be symptomless carriers, since it apparently can have quite a long incubation period. They may develop symptoms within a couple of weeks.
- sanxiyn 7y agoYes. Sequences strongly support single zoonotic introduction.
- GistNoesis 7y agoThat's not the way I read the report. I read it as it is confirmed that the virus can spread before the symptoms appear. No where is it stated that there is a new variant.
- incompatible 7y agoI'm not sure that et even says that, just that they tested everybody who arrived on the plane and found a few with the infection but no symptoms. It doesn't say whether they can spread the infection in that state.
- pferde 7y agoThis is the first thing that came into my mind when I read that various governments wanted to evacuate their nationals from Wuhan. THAT IS HOW YOU HELP THE VIRUS TO SPREAD, DUMMIES! I get that they want their citizens to be safe (genuinely, or to win political points at home - it does not matter), but it goes directly against best practices in disease control.