4 ms·

Can't you go all-in 12 times to get there? It would only work for one out a few thousand people, but it's certainly possible.

tempsy 7y ago
uh find me one real life example of someone doing that and succeeding. on a craps table there's no bet that has no house advantage other than the behind the line bet. Same with roulette. and no, usually these tables have max bets, so it wouldn't be possible, if you had got to $500k (somehow), to bet that on a single bet. again, the difference is the upside is asymmetric with options. also it's never an all or nothing bet like a coin flip - if your option value goes in the wrong direction you can sell for a partial loss.
- bduerst 7y ago
  12 second search: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kWok7813jZU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kWok7813jZU Splitting hairs over whether or not it's in a casino isn't really a requirement to being gambling, which is kind of the point.
  - tempsy 7y ago
    I was responding to the hypothetical example of betting it all on flipping a coin 12 times to get from X to Y. i'm not sure what your point is. this is a just a large 35x bet. turning $500 into $1M is 2000x. what casino game can you play that would get you there? again, outside of essentially winning at a slot machine I don't know a game where you can turn $500 to $1M. the insight here is that options buying is asymmetric. max loss for essentially unlimited gain if you bet in the right direction. there isn't a casino table gain that has the same quality. i'm also not suggesting this is not speculative or not akin to gambling, but the risk/reward for options buying is better than a casino. it's also not an "all or nothing" bet. You can sell for partial losses without losing everything if it goes in the wrong direction, whereas table games are generally "all or nothing".

4 ms·

Can't you go all-in 12 times to get there? It would only work for one out a few thousand people, but it's certainly possible.

by lucasmullens 7y ago

tempsy 7y ago
uh find me one real life example of someone doing that and succeeding. on a craps table there's no bet that has no house advantage other than the behind the line bet. Same with roulette. and no, usually these tables have max bets, so it wouldn't be possible, if you had got to $500k (somehow), to bet that on a single bet. again, the difference is the upside is asymmetric with options. also it's never an all or nothing bet like a coin flip - if your option value goes in the wrong direction you can sell for a partial loss.
- bduerst 7y ago
  12 second search: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kWok7813jZU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kWok7813jZU Splitting hairs over whether or not it's in a casino isn't really a requirement to being gambling, which is kind of the point.
  - tempsy 7y ago
    I was responding to the hypothetical example of betting it all on flipping a coin 12 times to get from X to Y. i'm not sure what your point is. this is a just a large 35x bet. turning $500 into $1M is 2000x. what casino game can you play that would get you there? again, outside of essentially winning at a slot machine I don't know a game where you can turn $500 to $1M. the insight here is that options buying is asymmetric. max loss for essentially unlimited gain if you bet in the right direction. there isn't a casino table gain that has the same quality. i'm also not suggesting this is not speculative or not akin to gambling, but the risk/reward for options buying is better than a casino. it's also not an "all or nothing" bet. You can sell for partial losses without losing everything if it goes in the wrong direction, whereas table games are generally "all or nothing".