7 ms·

simple back of the envelope calculation: in 3 years time, they will have 3 giga factories (+1 in upstate new york), each of which should be scale to 500k cars.

simple back of the envelope calculation: in 3 years time, they will have 3 giga factories (+1 in upstate new york), each of which should be scale to 500k cars. at an average resale price of $50k (might be a little lower, but let's keep it simple), that's $75B in revenue. at a 10% profit margin, that's $7.5B profit. let's presume a 20x factor as a growth stock, you have an evaluation of $150B, which it's currently trending to. This is excluding any other growth opportunities (self driving, solar, battery storage, drive train). just plain car sales...

saghm 7y ago
This also assumes that there's demand for all of these $50,000 cars, which isn't necessarily the case.
- lazyjones 7y ago
  I'm sure there is, if you consider all the climate politics ramping up. Politicians, officials, other virtue signallers will prefer to be seen in EV soon.
- JeffL 7y ago
  So far, it seems that Teslas are so great that they sell themselves. The more Teslas on the road, the more demand gets created for Teslas as more and more people are exposed to them.
- mitchellgoffpc 7y ago
  The base Model 3 costs $40k in the US, and even without any extra options at all, it’s a great car to drive IMO! (Although it IS a lot more expensive in foreign markets)
- joshualross 7y ago
  Currently, the demand is still strong enough that the wait time on a new TM3 is 4-8 weeks. That may decrease, but right now Tesla can't make them fast enough.
  - AtlasBarfed 7y ago
    The Y will have more demand. Crossover rules the us market
- AtlasBarfed 7y ago
  Battery cost is plummeting, Tesla is at the forefront of that. They can collect all the extra margin, or drop prices as needed
sf_rob 7y ago
As you mentioned that's marginal profit. You'd have to include estimates of their other costs/liabilities before estimating future market cap.
xkjkls 7y ago
Why do you assume they can sell all those cars, when they can’t even sell all their current capacity of cars? They’ve been able to produce 500,000 cars for awhile, yet only delivering 367,000 this year.
- m463 7y ago
  They could sell a lot of semis and cybertrucks if they were ready. And just think, they could put a dashboard on the model 3 and sales would probably double.
  - xkjkls 7y ago
    Neither of those cars exist.
    - AtlasBarfed 7y ago
      The Tesla semi is a whole new game in battery production. 300kwhr packs? If tech gets good, Tesla could find buyers for 1000 kwhr packs.
- zaroth 7y ago
  In fact, Deliveries exceeded Production in Q4, Q3, and Q2, and fell short of production by 14,000 vehicles in Q1 2019. [1] - https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesl... [2] - https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q3-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesl... [3] - https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q2-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesl... [4] - https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q1-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesl...
  - xkjkls 7y ago
    Extraordinarily strange, given that inventories haven’t changed to near the same degree.

saghm 7y ago

This also assumes that there's demand for all of these $50,000 cars, which isn't necessarily the case.

lazyjones 7y ago
I'm sure there is, if you consider all the climate politics ramping up. Politicians, officials, other virtue signallers will prefer to be seen in EV soon.
JeffL 7y ago
So far, it seems that Teslas are so great that they sell themselves. The more Teslas on the road, the more demand gets created for Teslas as more and more people are exposed to them.
mitchellgoffpc 7y ago
The base Model 3 costs $40k in the US, and even without any extra options at all, it’s a great car to drive IMO! (Although it IS a lot more expensive in foreign markets)
joshualross 7y ago
Currently, the demand is still strong enough that the wait time on a new TM3 is 4-8 weeks. That may decrease, but right now Tesla can't make them fast enough.
- AtlasBarfed 7y ago
  The Y will have more demand. Crossover rules the us market
AtlasBarfed 7y ago
Battery cost is plummeting, Tesla is at the forefront of that. They can collect all the extra margin, or drop prices as needed

sf_rob 7y ago

As you mentioned that's marginal profit. You'd have to include estimates of their other costs/liabilities before estimating future market cap.

xkjkls 7y ago

Why do you assume they can sell all those cars, when they can’t even sell all their current capacity of cars? They’ve been able to produce 500,000 cars for awhile, yet only delivering 367,000 this year.

m463 7y ago
They could sell a lot of semis and cybertrucks if they were ready. And just think, they could put a dashboard on the model 3 and sales would probably double.
- xkjkls 7y ago
  Neither of those cars exist.
  - AtlasBarfed 7y ago
    The Tesla semi is a whole new game in battery production. 300kwhr packs? If tech gets good, Tesla could find buyers for 1000 kwhr packs.
zaroth 7y ago
In fact, Deliveries exceeded Production in Q4, Q3, and Q2, and fell short of production by 14,000 vehicles in Q1 2019. [1] - https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesl... [2] - https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q3-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesl... [3] - https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q2-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesl... [4] - https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q1-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesl...
- xkjkls 7y ago
  Extraordinarily strange, given that inventories haven’t changed to near the same degree.