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> I guess the hard to understand part is: how does a $50B company that is growing revenue at 1% annually more than double its market cap in 3 months. This is j

> I guess the hard to understand part is: how does a $50B company that is growing revenue at 1% annually more than double its market cap in 3 months. This is just my opinion: The way people were valuing Tesla is a massively valuable stock with a high potential of blowing up. From the looks of things, Tesla has crossed into prolonged profitability. It's not a huge increase in revenue, but it is a big decrease in the chance of bankruptcy. Additionally, because Tesla can self fund and doesn't have to rely on the markets to raise money, they don't have to care very much about short sellers driving the price down. The bull case (robo-taxis, etc.) is still there, but the chance of Tesla going bankrupt is much lower than 1 year ago, so the stock has shot up.

xkjkls 7y ago
> From the looks of things, Tesla has crossed into prolonged profitability How? They lost $800 million in 2019. > Additionally, because Tesla can self fund and doesn't have to rely on the markets to raise money, they don't have to care very much about short sellers driving the price down. They still have increasing bills and huge liabilities. Acting like they have no risks if they don't raise money is crazy.
- nordsieck 7y ago
  > They lost $800 million in 2019. You're not wrong. Of course the counterpoint is that they were profitable both the 3rd and 4th quarter. > They still have increasing bills and huge liabilities. That is true. However, some of their debt will convert into equity as long as the stock price remains where it is. More broadly, I'm not trying to convince anyone that Tesla is some sort of value stock. It's not. It's absurdly volatile. There's also a good chance that they won't win the race to level 5 autonomy. All I'm saying is: enough people believe in the upside and think the downside has been diminished sufficiently to drive up the price to where it is. Maybe they're wrong. Maybe they're right. I certainly don't know.
  - xkjkls 7y ago
    > Of course the counterpoint is that they were profitable both the 3rd and 4th quarter. Less so than last year. Why do we believe this is sustainable over a full year? > More broadly, I'm not trying to convince anyone that Tesla is some sort of value stock. It's not. There seem to be people who do, and I want to insure that they don't lose their whole retirement savings chasing that.

xkjkls 7y ago

> From the looks of things, Tesla has crossed into prolonged profitability How? They lost $800 million in 2019. > Additionally, because Tesla can self fund and doesn't have to rely on the markets to raise money, they don't have to care very much about short sellers driving the price down. They still have increasing bills and huge liabilities. Acting like they have no risks if they don't raise money is crazy.

nordsieck 7y ago
> They lost $800 million in 2019. You're not wrong. Of course the counterpoint is that they were profitable both the 3rd and 4th quarter. > They still have increasing bills and huge liabilities. That is true. However, some of their debt will convert into equity as long as the stock price remains where it is. More broadly, I'm not trying to convince anyone that Tesla is some sort of value stock. It's not. It's absurdly volatile. There's also a good chance that they won't win the race to level 5 autonomy. All I'm saying is: enough people believe in the upside and think the downside has been diminished sufficiently to drive up the price to where it is. Maybe they're wrong. Maybe they're right. I certainly don't know.
- xkjkls 7y ago
  > Of course the counterpoint is that they were profitable both the 3rd and 4th quarter. Less so than last year. Why do we believe this is sustainable over a full year? > More broadly, I'm not trying to convince anyone that Tesla is some sort of value stock. It's not. There seem to be people who do, and I want to insure that they don't lose their whole retirement savings chasing that.