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>They’re growing while the market for legacy automakers is shrinking. Do you have data for this? Tesla had, essentially zero growth in the US in 2019, which i

>They’re growing while the market for legacy automakers is shrinking. Do you have data for this? Tesla had, essentially zero growth in the US in 2019, which is where it sells half of its cars. There are many companies that had higher growth than that, including Volvo, which grew 10% in the US. LandRover sold 125k units in the US in 2019, which is far more than the Model S + X (its competitors). So, I'm not sure where you get the idea that everyone else is shrinking while Tesla is growing. Some companies might be, but some are growing faster than Tesla. These are not mysteries; there is data out there.

deleted 7y ago
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hw 7y ago
The growth will come from China, where there's still plenty of EV incentives by the government. Growth in US will depend on new EV incentives IMO
- xkjkls 7y ago
  Why is that a bull thesis though? If the growth is that dependent on subsidies?
  - toomuchtodo 7y ago
    China is one of the biggest markets in the world and is committed to the rapid deployment of EVs. Unlike the US, those subsides will be around for a while. China also gave Tesla very favorable loan terms for the China Gigafactory.
    - xkjkls 7y ago
      > Unlike the US, those subsides will be around for a while. Why? That doesn't seem like a stable investment thesis. > China also gave Tesla very favorable loan terms for the China Gigafactory. And if Tesla doesn't meet a number of targets the Chinese government takes complete ownership of the factory. They didn't give the good financing terms out of goodwill. Tesla entered an incredibly risky proposition with its Chinese factory.
      - toomuchtodo 7y ago
        You asked what the bill thesis is. Bull thesis is there’s a ton of growth ahead for Tesla. Market reaction seems to agree. If one disagrees with the market, short TSLA. Hasn’t worked out that well for those starting with relatively large amounts of capital, but maybe shorts are still right! Vote with your dollars.
        xkjkls 7y ago
        Maybe they agree, but the last two quarters should make anyone skeptical. For a company at the multiple it is it post negative to zero YoY growth for two quarters is crazy
jsight 7y ago
Tesla delivered ~250k cars in 2018 and ~360k cars in 2019. In the 4th quarter, they had a run rate of >400k, and it is expected that 2020 will produce at least 500k. I'm purely focused on why people see it as a growth story, despite some numbers implying otherwise. Its a drop in the bucket compared to the rest of the industry, so I wouldn't expect it to be possible to tease out the impact on other manufacturers in a reliable way.

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hw 7y ago

The growth will come from China, where there's still plenty of EV incentives by the government. Growth in US will depend on new EV incentives IMO

xkjkls 7y ago
Why is that a bull thesis though? If the growth is that dependent on subsidies?
- toomuchtodo 7y ago
  China is one of the biggest markets in the world and is committed to the rapid deployment of EVs. Unlike the US, those subsides will be around for a while. China also gave Tesla very favorable loan terms for the China Gigafactory.
  - xkjkls 7y ago
    > Unlike the US, those subsides will be around for a while. Why? That doesn't seem like a stable investment thesis. > China also gave Tesla very favorable loan terms for the China Gigafactory. And if Tesla doesn't meet a number of targets the Chinese government takes complete ownership of the factory. They didn't give the good financing terms out of goodwill. Tesla entered an incredibly risky proposition with its Chinese factory.
    - toomuchtodo 7y ago
      You asked what the bill thesis is. Bull thesis is there’s a ton of growth ahead for Tesla. Market reaction seems to agree. If one disagrees with the market, short TSLA. Hasn’t worked out that well for those starting with relatively large amounts of capital, but maybe shorts are still right! Vote with your dollars.
      - xkjkls 7y ago
        Maybe they agree, but the last two quarters should make anyone skeptical. For a company at the multiple it is it post negative to zero YoY growth for two quarters is crazy

jsight 7y ago

Tesla delivered ~250k cars in 2018 and ~360k cars in 2019. In the 4th quarter, they had a run rate of >400k, and it is expected that 2020 will produce at least 500k. I'm purely focused on why people see it as a growth story, despite some numbers implying otherwise. Its a drop in the bucket compared to the rest of the industry, so I wouldn't expect it to be possible to tease out the impact on other manufacturers in a reliable way.