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I thought the Y was most similar to the X? Am I missing something?

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
QuotedForTruth 7y ago
Its pretty in between as far as size goes. But it shares many parts with the 3 and most importantly is much closer to the 3 on price. The 3 Dual Motor Long Range is about $48k and the Y is $50k. The X Dual Motor Long Range is $80k. So if it will probably take some sales from both the 3 and X. But X sales aren't very significant compared to 3 sales anyway.
- xkjkls 7y ago
  In terms of margin the X sales are still significant. S/X sales are still the only thing that provides any consistent profit to Tesla.
nordsieck 7y ago
> I thought the Y was most similar to the X? IMO, all Tesla vehicles (so far) are pretty similar to each other. On the one hand, Y is a less expensive X. On the other hand, Y is a bigger 3 with a hatch back. I'm not an expert in automotive consumer behavior, but I have to imagine that Y will cannibalize some amount of 3 sales. I also don't think that will matter that much - there is so much demand for Tesla vehicles that they are battery limited.
- manmal 7y ago
  Also, Ys are more expensive, meaning an increased bottomline if they really displace 3s.
  - xkjkls 7y ago
    Increasing the top line, not necessarily bottom line. There is nothing to indicate that Ys have better margins than 3s.
    - mehrdada 7y ago
      There's some evidence: pretty much same platform as 3 should imply roughly the same cost structure for the Y. That+higher price implies higher margin. It would be akin to Performance Model 3 in that sense.
      - xkjkls 7y ago
        There is still more material in the Y than the 3. That doesn't seem to indicate better margins
        manmal 7y ago
        But they might have reduced the number of stamped parts by an order of magnitude, improved wiring in a revolutionary way (there’s a patent by Tesla for that), MUCH less R&D and production setup than model 3 (they won’t make all the mistakes twice),... and let’s not forget economies of scale, they will produce more Y than 3.
        xkjkls 7y ago
        All of this is theoretical and we don't have any real data on how it will affect gross margins. When the car is larger, many things are going to be more costly, like painting, which takes up a significant part of automotive margins.
xkjkls 7y ago
It's similar to a 3 and the X. Basically, the question is whether there are a large number of customers not buying Tesla's because an affordable model without 7 seats doesn't exist. From there, you have to question how many people who are currently deciding on 3s would decide to buy Ys.
Melting_Harps 7y ago
> I thought the Y was most similar to the X? Am I missing something? The Y is a crossover SUV like the X, but based off the Model 3 platform/chassis; what I'm really surprised by is the notion that they will build these in Fremont! I actually interviewed at the Fremont Factory in '17 in logistics, the factory was a at Max capacity even with the low 3 numbers being produced. In 18-19 they hit their stride and started to use auxiliary lots: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/found-a-lot-of-model-3s-in-a-tesla-lot-pictures-inside.104317/page-42 https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/found-a-lot-of-model... They stated that at full capacity and with a successful ramp up 3 would overwhelm their storage capacity, so turn around was critical with little to margin for error; if anyone remembers all the Tesla employee parking lots were full and created a parking nightmare. Well, the outbound deliveries were equally bad. The shutdowns and refitting of the assembly lines showed just how drastic things were for a while. They overcame this and I'm glad they did as they are now offering the 35k base model 3 as was announced in the beginning which was the 'game changer,' but I'm also glad I turned down the offer in the end, especially because they don't seem to be utilizing their Sparks and Shanghai factory for this model which would probably be best as S/X/3 are still being made in Fremont. Then again that stock price leap to 600 is pretty nice, just not worth the stress induced heart attack or stroke at 40. I wonder where Semi/Roadster II/Cybertruck are being made then. I honestly thought they'd consider doing the Roadster II at Fremont for that extra 'Made in California' cache to match its price tag, but not the Y.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

Its pretty in between as far as size goes. But it shares many parts with the 3 and most importantly is much closer to the 3 on price. The 3 Dual Motor Long Range is about $48k and the Y is $50k. The X Dual Motor Long Range is $80k. So if it will probably take some sales from both the 3 and X. But X sales aren't very significant compared to 3 sales anyway.

xkjkls 7y ago
In terms of margin the X sales are still significant. S/X sales are still the only thing that provides any consistent profit to Tesla.

nordsieck 7y ago

> I thought the Y was most similar to the X? IMO, all Tesla vehicles (so far) are pretty similar to each other. On the one hand, Y is a less expensive X. On the other hand, Y is a bigger 3 with a hatch back. I'm not an expert in automotive consumer behavior, but I have to imagine that Y will cannibalize some amount of 3 sales. I also don't think that will matter that much - there is so much demand for Tesla vehicles that they are battery limited.

manmal 7y ago
Also, Ys are more expensive, meaning an increased bottomline if they really displace 3s.
- xkjkls 7y ago
  Increasing the top line, not necessarily bottom line. There is nothing to indicate that Ys have better margins than 3s.
  - mehrdada 7y ago
    There's some evidence: pretty much same platform as 3 should imply roughly the same cost structure for the Y. That+higher price implies higher margin. It would be akin to Performance Model 3 in that sense.
    - xkjkls 7y ago
      There is still more material in the Y than the 3. That doesn't seem to indicate better margins
      - manmal 7y ago
        But they might have reduced the number of stamped parts by an order of magnitude, improved wiring in a revolutionary way (there’s a patent by Tesla for that), MUCH less R&D and production setup than model 3 (they won’t make all the mistakes twice),... and let’s not forget economies of scale, they will produce more Y than 3.
        xkjkls 7y ago
        All of this is theoretical and we don't have any real data on how it will affect gross margins. When the car is larger, many things are going to be more costly, like painting, which takes up a significant part of automotive margins.

xkjkls 7y ago

It's similar to a 3 and the X. Basically, the question is whether there are a large number of customers not buying Tesla's because an affordable model without 7 seats doesn't exist. From there, you have to question how many people who are currently deciding on 3s would decide to buy Ys.

Melting_Harps 7y ago

> I thought the Y was most similar to the X? Am I missing something? The Y is a crossover SUV like the X, but based off the Model 3 platform/chassis; what I'm really surprised by is the notion that they will build these in Fremont! I actually interviewed at the Fremont Factory in '17 in logistics, the factory was a at Max capacity even with the low 3 numbers being produced. In 18-19 they hit their stride and started to use auxiliary lots: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/found-a-lot-of-model-3s-in-a-tesla-lot-pictures-inside.104317/page-42 https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/found-a-lot-of-model... They stated that at full capacity and with a successful ramp up 3 would overwhelm their storage capacity, so turn around was critical with little to margin for error; if anyone remembers all the Tesla employee parking lots were full and created a parking nightmare. Well, the outbound deliveries were equally bad. The shutdowns and refitting of the assembly lines showed just how drastic things were for a while. They overcame this and I'm glad they did as they are now offering the 35k base model 3 as was announced in the beginning which was the 'game changer,' but I'm also glad I turned down the offer in the end, especially because they don't seem to be utilizing their Sparks and Shanghai factory for this model which would probably be best as S/X/3 are still being made in Fremont. Then again that stock price leap to 600 is pretty nice, just not worth the stress induced heart attack or stroke at 40. I wonder where Semi/Roadster II/Cybertruck are being made then. I honestly thought they'd consider doing the Roadster II at Fremont for that extra 'Made in California' cache to match its price tag, but not the Y.