3 ms·
On the contrary, isn't the expected behaviour for most types of growth that it will be exponential in the initial phase, then transition to an S-shaped curve?
by semi-extrinsic 7y ago
On the contrary, isn't the expected behaviour for most types of growth that it will be exponential in the initial phase, then transition to an S-shaped curve?
Whether it be expansion into a new market or spread of a virus, in the early days there is little resistance. Then when (competitors|health services) start noticing and working against it, the spread slows and plateaus. How quickly that happens and what level of spread the plateau is at depends on the speed and efficiency of the countermeasures.
- jhart99 7y agoAt some point everyone an infected person comes into contact with is either already infected or has previously been infected( and potentially immune). So I would think you would be exactly correct, at some point the number of infected people will peak and begin to fall. The number of dead and the number of recovered will form an sigmoid curve.