8 ms·
Coronavirus 3 Day Prediction
- Zenst 7y agoWhat TZ is being used for day cut-off? Details like that are important. More so if you want a comparison with actualities like :- https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h... (which is EST as you can see - bottom right).
- dv_dt 7y agoDespite the text implying it's all an exponential curve forecast model, the wiggles seem to point to actual data being plotted too. I wish they differentiated data points from forecast points in the actual chart. Text says 1/29 update, but I think only the 1/28 point seems to match news reports.
- repiret 7y agoAnd cited sources for their data. And had error bars on the prediction. And gave you access to historical predictions.
- yorwba 7y agoIf you just want the historical data, try https://news.sina.cn/zt_d/yiqing0121 https://news.sina.cn/zt_d/yiqing0121 Of course the labels and data sources are all in Chinese...
- mlyle 7y agoHistorical case counts don't really have error bars... and it's difficult to come up with meaningful error bars based on goodness of fit of a function.
- repiret 7y agoBut the graph is also looking three days into the future, presumably based on fitting some model to the historical data. The output of any worthwhile model is a probability distribution over possible future infection and death counts. As a consumer of that graph, I should be able to see not just the value just a model thinks is most likely, but at least some indication of how tight a bound the model is placing on those values.
- sramsay 7y agoThe lack of which suggests that the author (and who is that, exactly?) may not have given a moment's thought to any kind of responsibility they might have in the midst of a health crisis. Oh, what the hell. Let's write some Javascript! And slap a tweet button on it!
- GistNoesis 7y agoIt seems that actual are integer values while predictions are float numbers.
- mlyle 7y agoIt could be clearer, but, the way I read it was that it's the historical data plotted + 3 days of predictions.
- AznHisoka 7y agoWhich is 100% misleading, and strips all accountability from the predictor. Show us your prediction and the difference between the actual and predicted results to see how well you did. Stop moving the goalposts too. Make the prediction for all days in the future once, and don't change it based on the current numbers.
- dredmorbius 7y agohttps://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22185174 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22185174 Though near-term projection based on current trend is useful.
- mlyle 7y agoEventually more humans will die from it than have ever been born! ;)
- dredmorbius 7y agoIt's the Four Yorkshiremen Epidemic.
- mlyle 7y agoIt's just an exponential fit based on the current number. You can run that same fit for earlier days and eyeball the graph, but we have a fancier tool for that called a "correlation coefficient". > Stop moving the goalposts too. Make the prediction for all days in the future once, and don't change it based on the current numbers. So, don't ever improve the prediction based on new data. Mkay. Extrapolating out into the future is always errorprone. Exponents don't ever continue forever and they look like great models until they don't.
- vackosar 7y agoYes you are right. I moved the data one day forward as it seems more natural to call data that we received today as todays data and not yesterday's, but that was a bad idea. I fixed that. Also I tried to add as much info about the sources I had now. I will try to improve on that later. The site mentioned here https://news.sina.cn/zt_d/yiqing0121 https://news.sina.cn/zt_d/yiqing0121 really looks like finally one good source of the data I was looking for. I need to get some sleep now.
- dv_dt 7y agoMostly I was hoping for a different color and/or symbol for data vs prediction points as a way to more quickly understand what the chart curve represented. Another interesting comparison would be to draw a model curve (or curves) further back - the difference vs data points might give you a visual indicator of how the virus is spreading vs effect of active/natural influences vs the model. Thanks for the update, don't be too hard on yourself, there are infinite ways to improve, but I appreciate the quick look data.
- vackosar 7y agoI colored the prediction points in blue.
- generalpass 7y agoI think the only question at this point is will Coronavirus kill all of us or just most of us.
- munk-a 7y agoOr be contained like pretty much all of the epidemics we've hit so far and fizzle out. Steps need to be taken and it is dangerous - but I also have bird flu fatigue.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- CJefferson 7y agoAt worst, based on current stats it will kill around the weakest 1% of us. That's still a massive problem, and awful tragedy, but nowhere near killing "most" of us.
- generalpass 7y agoIs there any demographic data on that 1%?
- lbj 7y ago"The prediction is based on a very simple assumption that the counts will follow an exponential curve" This reminds me of news reports from the 90s, where the big fear was that Chinese companies would totally take over Europe. The big Chinese breakthrough would happen 'next week', 'next year', 'next some arbitrary buffer that puts us just outside of the data'. Corona might go exponential, but with the amount of effort being put into containment, I doubt it.
- semi-extrinsic 7y agoOn the contrary, isn't the expected behaviour for most types of growth that it will be exponential in the initial phase, then transition to an S-shaped curve? Whether it be expansion into a new market or spread of a virus, in the early days there is little resistance. Then when (competitors|health services) start noticing and working against it, the spread slows and plateaus. How quickly that happens and what level of spread the plateau is at depends on the speed and efficiency of the countermeasures.
- jhart99 7y agoAt some point everyone an infected person comes into contact with is either already infected or has previously been infected( and potentially immune). So I would think you would be exactly correct, at some point the number of infected people will peak and begin to fall. The number of dead and the number of recovered will form an sigmoid curve.
- generalpass 7y agoI'm pretty sure Gartner predicted that by 2010 there would be 15,000,000,000 Palm Pilot users.
- Tomminn 7y agoFor clarification, the coronavirus is currently exponential with a R^2 value very close to one. The question is whether of not it will stay exponential, or go sigmoidal soon.
- dredmorbius 7y agoIn gawk, as of 28 Jan, daily for 2 weeks, weekly for 100 days: #!/usr/bin/gawk -f BEGIN { # Data as of 2020-1-28 doublerate = 1.71 dailyrate = 2/doublerate cases = 6063 deaths = 132 now = mktime( "2020 01 28 00 00 00" ) maxdays = 14 interval = 1 printf( "| %3s | %-12s | %12s | %14s |\n", "day", "date", "deaths", "cases" ) printf( "|%-5s|%14s|%14s|%16s|\n", ":---", "------------:", "------------:", "-------------:" ) for(day=1; day<=maxdays; day+=interval ) { date = strftime( "%b %d, %Y", now + day * 86400 ) printf( "| %3i | %-12s | %'12i | %'14i |\n", day, date, deaths * (dailyrate^day), cases * (dailyrate^day) ) } printf( "\n\n" ) maxdays = 100 interval = 7 printf( "| %3s | %-12s | %12s | %14s |\n", "day", "date", "deaths", "cases" ) printf( "|%-5s|%14s|%14s|%16s|\n", ":---", "------------:", "------------:", "-------------:" ) for(day=1; day<=maxdays; day+=interval ) { date = strftime( "%b %d, %Y", now + day * 86400 ) printf( "| %3i | %-12s | %'12i | %'14i |\n", day, date, deaths * (dailyrate^day), cases * (dailyrate^day) ) } printf( "\n" ) }
- dredmorbius 7y agoOutput. Keep in mind that low-side deviation is anticipated and is a measure of containment success. | day | date | deaths | cases | |:--- | ------------:| ------------:| -------------:| | 1 | Jan 29, 2020 | 154 | 7,091 | | 2 | Jan 30, 2020 | 180 | 8,293 | | 3 | Jan 31, 2020 | 211 | 9,700 | | 4 | Feb 01, 2020 | 247 | 11,345 | | 5 | Feb 02, 2020 | 288 | 13,269 | | 6 | Feb 03, 2020 | 337 | 15,519 | | 7 | Feb 04, 2020 | 395 | 18,152 | | 8 | Feb 05, 2020 | 462 | 21,230 | | 9 | Feb 06, 2020 | 540 | 24,830 | | 10 | Feb 07, 2020 | 632 | 29,041 | | 11 | Feb 08, 2020 | 739 | 33,967 | | 12 | Feb 09, 2020 | 864 | 39,727 | | 13 | Feb 10, 2020 | 1,011 | 46,465 | | 14 | Feb 11, 2020 | 1,183 | 54,345 | | day | date | deaths | cases | |:--- | ------------:| ------------:| -------------:| | 1 | Jan 29, 2020 | 154 | 7,091 | | 8 | Feb 05, 2020 | 462 | 21,230 | | 15 | Feb 12, 2020 | 1,383 | 63,561 | | 22 | Feb 19, 2020 | 4,143 | 190,297 | | 29 | Feb 26, 2020 | 12,403 | 569,731 | | 36 | Mar 04, 2020 | 37,135 | 1,705,718 | | 43 | Mar 11, 2020 | 111,181 | 5,106,750 | | 50 | Mar 18, 2020 | 332,865 | 15,289,096 | | 57 | Mar 25, 2020 | 996,564 | 45,774,017 | | 64 | Apr 01, 2020 | 2,983,613 | 137,042,800 | | 71 | Apr 08, 2020 | 8,932,639 | 410,292,352 | | 78 | Apr 15, 2020 | 26,743,422 | 1,228,374,011 | | 85 | Apr 22, 2020 | 80,067,114 | 3,677,628,161 | | 92 | Apr 29, 2020 | 239,712,883 | 11,010,448,584 | | 99 | May 06, 2020 | 717,676,247 | 32,964,174,931 |
- adrianmonk 7y agoThis page layout is messed up. Too wide for my window, and somehow it defeats horizontal scrollbar. Things are cut off along both the left and right sides, and there's no way (short of making the window bigger) to see them. (xwininfo says my Chrome window is 1114 pixels wide.)
- vackosar 7y agoThanks a lot for the bug report. I on mine Firefox and Chromium is seems fine. I will try to fix it. If you have any tips let me know.
- radiorental 7y agoI appreciate the text below the graph was probably written by a non native English speaker but can someone please decipher this.. Question 2 However, as a reminder, CDC always recommends everyday preventive actions to help prevent the spread of respiratory viruses, including: Wash your {{ ... }}. (a) hands, give every bite a chance to keep your nose open Question 3 Use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer that contains {{ ... }}. (a) antifungal immunoprecipients, not salt; run an inflatable swimming pool Question 4 Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and {{ ... }}. (b) neck, especially when wearing your shoes Question 7 Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw {{ ... }}. (a) your hands up, arms, hands, face Question 8 Clean and disinfect frequently touched {{ ... }}. (c) tissues with dental iron
- vackosar 7y agoThanks for asking. Those are automatically generated answers from quiz assisted app Quizrecall.com. The strategy of the quiz generation there is to generate at least distraction answers while good alternative answer generation remains kind of hard. You can try out the app on your favorite wiki summary at https://Quizrecall.com https://Quizrecall.com
- jerf 7y agoIf I am reading the tea leaves correctly, based on the fact that quizrecall.com was registered December 30th, 2019, and my (adjusts monocle, clears throat ostentatiously) extensive experience reading /r/SubSimulatorGPT2, it appears to be a new website that tries to automatically create quizzes from given material by blanking out portions of sentences and using the (probably stock, probably the smaller model) GPT-2 text generator to fill in the "wrong" answers. Neat idea. Not sure it's quite useful yet, but neat idea.
- treve 7y agoGiven the topic, might be better to choose something written by a human to avoid giving incorrect advice.
- sxp 7y agoThis would be more informative if it had historical predictions. E.g, https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/evlmqr/oc_update_on_timelapse_of_wuhan_coronavirus/ https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/evlmqr/oc_...
- sgt101 7y agoWhy do this when there are strong models from epidemiology and spreading processes? Like SEIRS?
- yorwba 7y agoTo promote their (not very good) quiz generation service.
- skmurphy 7y agoCan you provide any links to sites that take current data and use better models to forecast? This site strikes me as a useful first step. But clearly there are better approaches, I have only seen predictions in papers, not in an equivalent site.
- sgt101 7y agoThere are a few around. Try this one https://www.buyupside.com/calculators/sir.php https://www.buyupside.com/calculators/sir.php
- skmurphy 7y agoI think the current forecast is a reasonable first approximation for a three day forecast. The model you propose is more accurate but requires many more parameters, each with their own error bands. I think you are looking at a very complex rapidly evolving situation characterized by an eventual transition between exponential growth and S-curve transition that is very hard to predict. The chart now indicates the forecast points and assumes 3 days of exponential growth, which until the virus is contained is a reasonable three day forecast. I have no affiliation with the author of the chart but appreciate the thought and effort that went into it.
- vackosar 7y agoAt the time I haven't see any chart like that on the net. I also wanted to experiment a bit to see how many views one can get. (It is my third website or so)
- zachguo 7y agoThis is crap. Data is outdated and off, the assumption of an exponential curve is way too simplistic.
- ryanseys 7y agoRelevant xkcd: https://xkcd.com/605/ https://xkcd.com/605/
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- tararubena 7y agoPlease contribute many good articles like that! https://coolmaps.io https://coolmaps.io
- dethon 7y agoWHO provides status report here: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/ https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2... Seems to provide some useful data
- jreyes333 7y agocan someone please run this again, it's been so accurate!