I am replying to the correct comment. Like I said, the model uses input data from Jan 2017, which will contain exactly this same migration as what you're curren

I am replying to the correct comment. Like I said, the model uses input data from Jan 2017, which will contain exactly this same migration as what you're currently discussing. This lockdown is strictly an improvement on the modelled situation. Read the paper describing the model, then come back and reply.