5 ms·

Proper link if you aren’t in to clickbait: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720301200# https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pi

Proper link if you aren’t in to clickbait: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720301200# https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004896972...! > Using a retrospective prediction from a regression models, we estimate an 8.3% increase in external carapace dissolution over the last two decades and identified a set of affected OA-related sublethal pathways to inform future risk assessment studies of Dungeness crabs. Bad, but it seems no one actually measured this decades ago and it would be nice to have that data vs retrospective prediction. I believe them of course, it would just be nice to have real data if they’re claiming 8.3% estimation and not a range with expected looser precision for their sampling efforts. Edit: for clarity

klyrs 7y ago
@dang this is a much better link >> we estimate an 8.3% increase > it would just be nice to have real data if they’re claiming exactly 8.3% Point of fact, they don't claim "exactly" 8.3% -- they call it an estimate, and the notation indicates uncertainty -- read it as 8.3 ± 0.1%.
- ncmncm 7y ago
  It is quite unlikely that they can claim that much precision. "8.3" probably reads as more authoritative than ">8%". Whatever the case, 8% should be deeply alarming. Just how many % indicates a crashing ecosystem, and mass famine? Much of the world depends on ocean catch to get enough protein.
  - uniformlyrandom 7y ago
    Take a look at the graph: https://oceanacidification.noaa.gov/OurChangingOcean.aspx https://oceanacidification.noaa.gov/OurChangingOcean.aspx ~8.1% was not alarming 50 years ago, so why 8.3% should be alarming now? I would be more concerned about the curve slope and shape.
    - Pfhreak 7y ago
      That graph shows ph, not %. And the seawater ph is decreasing over time. I think perhaps you've misread it?
  - klyrs 7y ago
    > It is quite unlikely that they can claim that much precision. Can you quantify that statement with any rigor?
    - ncmncm 7y ago
      The point is that 8% +/-1 is just as bad as 8.3% +/-0.1.
      - ska 7y ago
        I think the point was more that your statement: "It is quite unlikely that they can claim that much precision." is non-obvious enough that it requires support.
- uniformlyrandom 7y ago
  And the article provides a link to nice graph one can extrapolate back or forward: https://oceanacidification.noaa.gov/OurChangingOcean.aspx https://oceanacidification.noaa.gov/OurChangingOcean.aspx

klyrs 7y ago

@dang this is a much better link >> we estimate an 8.3% increase > it would just be nice to have real data if they’re claiming exactly 8.3% Point of fact, they don't claim "exactly" 8.3% -- they call it an estimate, and the notation indicates uncertainty -- read it as 8.3 ± 0.1%.

ncmncm 7y ago
It is quite unlikely that they can claim that much precision. "8.3" probably reads as more authoritative than ">8%". Whatever the case, 8% should be deeply alarming. Just how many % indicates a crashing ecosystem, and mass famine? Much of the world depends on ocean catch to get enough protein.
- uniformlyrandom 7y ago
  Take a look at the graph: https://oceanacidification.noaa.gov/OurChangingOcean.aspx https://oceanacidification.noaa.gov/OurChangingOcean.aspx ~8.1% was not alarming 50 years ago, so why 8.3% should be alarming now? I would be more concerned about the curve slope and shape.
  - Pfhreak 7y ago
    That graph shows ph, not %. And the seawater ph is decreasing over time. I think perhaps you've misread it?
- klyrs 7y ago
  > It is quite unlikely that they can claim that much precision. Can you quantify that statement with any rigor?
  - ncmncm 7y ago
    The point is that 8% +/-1 is just as bad as 8.3% +/-0.1.
    - ska 7y ago
      I think the point was more that your statement: "It is quite unlikely that they can claim that much precision." is non-obvious enough that it requires support.
uniformlyrandom 7y ago
And the article provides a link to nice graph one can extrapolate back or forward: https://oceanacidification.noaa.gov/OurChangingOcean.aspx https://oceanacidification.noaa.gov/OurChangingOcean.aspx