4 ms·

It seems to be as infectious as a cold. So no.

xdarnold 7y ago
This is incorrect. If we assume that this virus is as infectious as the common cold, we can expect the infection rate within a household to be approximately 25% of contacts. That means that of the people you LIVE with, 25% will catch it from you. 50% infection rate in a large, distributed population like China would be very extreme.
- ramblerman 7y ago
  Not to mention people and the government are being a lot more careful than if this was a common cold.
  - Scarblac 7y ago
    But how long can they keep that up?
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- gdfasfklshg4 7y ago
  I never said 50% of the population have the same cold at once. 50% catching it over a 6 month period is very reasonable.
  - xdarnold 7y ago
    Over any time frame, it's still quite extreme. To use influenza as a proxy, which has virulence comparable to the cold, the yearly incidence rate in China is <35 per 100,000. Even if this is a full 100x worse, we aren't even getting close to 50% infection rate over the season or a 6 month time frame.
    - xdarnold 7y ago
      Replying myself to add reference, here: https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(19)30354-6/pdf https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(19)30354-6/pdf This is all well understood, and studied in considerable depth. The media overreaction is typical, but here at HN we are better than that and we should strive to rely on established science (where available). No need to throw out extreme or unreasonable numbers!
      - gdfasfklshg4 7y ago
        See my other comment. I was comparing to one of the viruses that causes a COLD not influenza. Colds are quite different to flues.
        xdarnold 7y ago
        Of course in many ways they are different, but not in the important ones for this discussion. I used influenza because it was convenient in terms of available research, I could grab in a minute or two, but I'm sure if you care to look you can find similar data for rhinovirus. Rhinovirus and influenza have very comparable R0's. R0 is the epidemiological measure of the "contagion" factor of a pathogen.
    - gdfasfklshg4 7y ago
      I was comparing with a cold not with influenza. We could try to make the comparison you are suggesting instead. But to make a valid comparison we need to consider: Is influenza infectious for 10 days before any symptoms show? How many people get the influenza vaccine each year? I.e. is there some herd immunity built up? The symptoms of influenza are universally nasty for everyone infected. No one with the flu is walking around and going to work (if you think do then you don't have the influenza virus you have a cold). It seems that at least some people with this new corona virus just have cold like symptoms and therefore will not by default be self-isolating like people with influenza naturally do.
      - xdarnold 7y ago
dahfizz 7y ago
Have you ever been in a room or walking down the street and see every other person have a cold? That is extreme.
- hanklazard 7y ago
  Those colds that you’re seeing represent common symptoms of many viruses (metapneumovirus, paraflu, influenza, rhinovirus, RSV, etc, etc ... and many of these have multiple subtypes which can be concurrently circulating). In other words, you’re noticing common symptoms not necessarily the same virus.
  - majewsky 7y ago
    > Those colds that you’re seeing represent common symptoms of many viruses And not just that. I have a septum deviation, so I basically have a runny nose all winter long, even though, most of the time, no viruses are involved.
    - precisioncoder 7y ago
      It's worth fixing that, surgery has come a long way. I had it surgically corrected last year and the energy boost from better breathing while physically active, better sleeping, and the lack of annoying people with my snoring are well worth it.
      - ta999999171 7y ago
        Can't agree enough. Even directly after surgery, with all the related inflammation and dried blood and gross up there, I immediately noticed a massive airflow difference. Do it.
- gdfasfklshg4 7y ago
  Peak cold symptoms last about 3 days. I never said 50% of the population have the same cold at once. 50% catching it over a 6 month period is very reasonable.
- 7y ago

This is incorrect. If we assume that this virus is as infectious as the common cold, we can expect the infection rate within a household to be approximately 25% of contacts. That means that of the people you LIVE with, 25% will catch it from you. 50% infection rate in a large, distributed population like China would be very extreme.

ramblerman 7y ago
Not to mention people and the government are being a lot more careful than if this was a common cold.
- Scarblac 7y ago
  But how long can they keep that up?
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
gdfasfklshg4 7y ago
I never said 50% of the population have the same cold at once. 50% catching it over a 6 month period is very reasonable.
- xdarnold 7y ago
  Over any time frame, it's still quite extreme. To use influenza as a proxy, which has virulence comparable to the cold, the yearly incidence rate in China is <35 per 100,000. Even if this is a full 100x worse, we aren't even getting close to 50% infection rate over the season or a 6 month time frame.
  - xdarnold 7y ago
    Replying myself to add reference, here: https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(19)30354-6/pdf https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(19)30354-6/pdf This is all well understood, and studied in considerable depth. The media overreaction is typical, but here at HN we are better than that and we should strive to rely on established science (where available). No need to throw out extreme or unreasonable numbers!
    - gdfasfklshg4 7y ago
      See my other comment. I was comparing to one of the viruses that causes a COLD not influenza. Colds are quite different to flues.
      - xdarnold 7y ago
        Of course in many ways they are different, but not in the important ones for this discussion. I used influenza because it was convenient in terms of available research, I could grab in a minute or two, but I'm sure if you care to look you can find similar data for rhinovirus. Rhinovirus and influenza have very comparable R0's. R0 is the epidemiological measure of the "contagion" factor of a pathogen.
  - gdfasfklshg4 7y ago
    I was comparing with a cold not with influenza. We could try to make the comparison you are suggesting instead. But to make a valid comparison we need to consider: Is influenza infectious for 10 days before any symptoms show? How many people get the influenza vaccine each year? I.e. is there some herd immunity built up? The symptoms of influenza are universally nasty for everyone infected. No one with the flu is walking around and going to work (if you think do then you don't have the influenza virus you have a cold). It seems that at least some people with this new corona virus just have cold like symptoms and therefore will not by default be self-isolating like people with influenza naturally do.
    - xdarnold 7y ago

dahfizz 7y ago

Have you ever been in a room or walking down the street and see every other person have a cold? That is extreme.

hanklazard 7y ago
Those colds that you’re seeing represent common symptoms of many viruses (metapneumovirus, paraflu, influenza, rhinovirus, RSV, etc, etc ... and many of these have multiple subtypes which can be concurrently circulating). In other words, you’re noticing common symptoms not necessarily the same virus.
- majewsky 7y ago
  > Those colds that you’re seeing represent common symptoms of many viruses And not just that. I have a septum deviation, so I basically have a runny nose all winter long, even though, most of the time, no viruses are involved.
  - precisioncoder 7y ago
    It's worth fixing that, surgery has come a long way. I had it surgically corrected last year and the energy boost from better breathing while physically active, better sleeping, and the lack of annoying people with my snoring are well worth it.
    - ta999999171 7y ago
      Can't agree enough. Even directly after surgery, with all the related inflammation and dried blood and gross up there, I immediately noticed a massive airflow difference. Do it.
gdfasfklshg4 7y ago
Peak cold symptoms last about 3 days. I never said 50% of the population have the same cold at once. 50% catching it over a 6 month period is very reasonable.
7y ago