2 ms·
I don't think you've got the right conclusion. The earlier estimate of the total cases was too low. Probably the newer estimate of total cases is ALSO biased
by dzdt 7y ago
I don't think you've got the right conclusion. The earlier estimate of the total cases was too low.
Probably the newer estimate of total cases is ALSO biased too low. The reason for underestimate is they are assuming international surveillance found all exported cases. The paper describes this shortcoming:
The estimates contained in this report have been constantly growing with respect to older
versions compiled with the data available at previous dates. This is because the number of
detected cases at International locations and a travel history from Wuhan city has nearly
tripled in the last week. It is worth stressing that this is not implying that the epidemic is
growing at the same rate. The estimated size of the outbreak refers to all cases occurred in
the area since the beginning of the outbreak, and notification and detection delays may play
an important role that, at the moment, do not allow the evaluation of the epidemic growth
rate.
- cs702 7y agoThank you. Yes, you're right. It seems more likely that earlier estimates were low.