4 ms·

> because the true severity of the outbreak isn’t yet known, it’s impossible to predict what the impact of that spread would be This seems to be a key quote.

by gexla 7y ago

> because the true severity of the outbreak isn’t yet known, it’s impossible to predict what the impact of that spread would be This seems to be a key quote. When you're making a bet, you should know the odds. Influenza is a known thing. I'm not going to think about that facemask knowing that influenza is going around, etc.

internet_user 7y ago
According to Dr Charles Leung from HK (some high ranking public health official? Didn’t get his job title) - early numbers in pandemics are usually underestimated. He called on preparing for a global outbreak, calling odds not insignificant. His live interview is on YouTube. He estimates 44k already infected globally.
- benji_is_me 7y ago
  I can't find the interview. Could you link it?
  - gexla 7y ago
    Here's another source which mentions the 44K number. The previous comment might have got the name wrong. http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/01/experts-ncov-spread-chinas-cities-could-trigger-global-epidemic http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/01/experts-n...
    - internet_user 7y ago
      Yes, Gabriel Leung is the correct name. Thank you.
  - internet_user 7y ago
    His name is Gabriel Leung, dean of hong kong's school of medicine. https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3047813/china-coronavirus-hong-kong-medical-experts-call https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/artic... his live interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aYyH4N8VXvA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aYyH4N8VXvA https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-01-27---viruses--hong-kong-experts--44-thousand-cases-already-.rkH-oLRh-U.html https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-01-27---viruses--hong... He expects 150k infections daily at some point: https://www.ccn.com/dramatic-hong-kong-data-predicts-coronavirus-outbreak-infecting-150000-every-day/ https://www.ccn.com/dramatic-hong-kong-data-predicts-coronav...

by gexla 7y ago

internet_user 7y ago

According to Dr Charles Leung from HK (some high ranking public health official? Didn’t get his job title) - early numbers in pandemics are usually underestimated. He called on preparing for a global outbreak, calling odds not insignificant. His live interview is on YouTube. He estimates 44k already infected globally.

benji_is_me 7y ago
I can't find the interview. Could you link it?
- gexla 7y ago
  Here's another source which mentions the 44K number. The previous comment might have got the name wrong. http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/01/experts-ncov-spread-chinas-cities-could-trigger-global-epidemic http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/01/experts-n...
  - internet_user 7y ago
    Yes, Gabriel Leung is the correct name. Thank you.
- internet_user 7y ago
  His name is Gabriel Leung, dean of hong kong's school of medicine. https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3047813/china-coronavirus-hong-kong-medical-experts-call https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/artic... his live interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aYyH4N8VXvA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aYyH4N8VXvA https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-01-27---viruses--hong-kong-experts--44-thousand-cases-already-.rkH-oLRh-U.html https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-01-27---viruses--hong... He expects 150k infections daily at some point: https://www.ccn.com/dramatic-hong-kong-data-predicts-coronavirus-outbreak-infecting-150000-every-day/ https://www.ccn.com/dramatic-hong-kong-data-predicts-coronav...