4 ms·

Statement and statistical model of the epidemic from HKU researchers. They're quite pessimistic. • Likely ~75k infections in China already • Chongqing likely

Statement and statistical model of the epidemic from HKU researchers. They're quite pessimistic. • Likely ~75k infections in China already • Chongqing likely the next big city to experience full uncontained outbreak • Drastic measures required to prevent full pandemic, including a drastic reduction in mobility (no large group gathering, no travel, etc) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwXMPsbxFfo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwXMPsbxFfo

xorfish 7y ago
A positive effect of a higher number of infection is, that it would reduce the fatality rate of the virus.
- kenneth 7y ago
  Indeed, but there's also very credible rumors saying that the number of dead patients in Wuhan is severely underreported. For example, this video shows someone walking around a hospital in Wuhan, where you see dead bodies in the hallways just sitting around. That doesn't happen when you only have 100 deaths in the province. That happens when you're so overwhelmed with dead patients that you just can't deal with it fast enough. If this is true, which I'm inclined to believe, then we're very likely looking at thousands of deaths already. https://twitter.com/ezracheungtoto/status/1220641000063848448 https://twitter.com/ezracheungtoto/status/122064100006384844...
  - internet_user 7y ago
    Nobody blockades 10 cities and quarantines 50 million people over 100 deaths. Shanghai closed all non essential businesses. Schools closed until Feb 17th. Hongkong is in state of emergency. Several military medical battalions have been deployed overnight in China. This is not a drill.
  - orf 7y ago
    Isn’t it more likely that they are asleep than dead?
    - Piskvorrr 7y ago
      That's the thing: we don't know. We don't even have data to make a guesstimate. That's the scary part: we can't tell if that is more likely.
internet_user 7y ago
Thank you for posting that video. He sounds most reasonable and with zero slogans, and even though with restraint he certainly thinks this can spin out of control.

xorfish 7y ago

A positive effect of a higher number of infection is, that it would reduce the fatality rate of the virus.

kenneth 7y ago
Indeed, but there's also very credible rumors saying that the number of dead patients in Wuhan is severely underreported. For example, this video shows someone walking around a hospital in Wuhan, where you see dead bodies in the hallways just sitting around. That doesn't happen when you only have 100 deaths in the province. That happens when you're so overwhelmed with dead patients that you just can't deal with it fast enough. If this is true, which I'm inclined to believe, then we're very likely looking at thousands of deaths already. https://twitter.com/ezracheungtoto/status/1220641000063848448 https://twitter.com/ezracheungtoto/status/122064100006384844...
- internet_user 7y ago
  Nobody blockades 10 cities and quarantines 50 million people over 100 deaths. Shanghai closed all non essential businesses. Schools closed until Feb 17th. Hongkong is in state of emergency. Several military medical battalions have been deployed overnight in China. This is not a drill.
- orf 7y ago
  Isn’t it more likely that they are asleep than dead?
  - Piskvorrr 7y ago
    That's the thing: we don't know. We don't even have data to make a guesstimate. That's the scary part: we can't tell if that is more likely.

internet_user 7y ago

Thank you for posting that video. He sounds most reasonable and with zero slogans, and even though with restraint he certainly thinks this can spin out of control.