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This is interesting. China can't cover up the true scale of the outbreak because the rate of infection overseas quickly gives the game away if they are publishi
by s_Hogg 7y ago
This is interesting. China can't cover up the true scale of the outbreak because the rate of infection overseas quickly gives the game away if they are publishing very low estimates of domestic infection.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- Anon84 7y agoIt’s pretty hard to cover up the dimension of an outbreak after it gets outside your borders. There are many things you can use to infer what the real dimension is likely to be. That being said, it’s also entirely likely that even the Chinese known exactly how many cases there are: 1. Cases aren’t detected unless you feel sick enough to go to the doctor 2. Even if you go to the doctor, the symptoms have to be strong enough for the doctor to order the specific test. This is a bigger factor in the early days. After the alert is given they likely start testing everyone, at least until the outbreak is large enough that it becomes moot 3. The big question (that I haven’t seen answered yet) if how long the assymptomatic incubation period is. In other words how long can you spread it before realizing you’re sick. In the end, the factor that will determine how large of a global outbreak were actually dealing with is now transmissible it is from person to person. From what I’ve seen all foreign (outside China) cases have been traced back to China, meaning that person to person transmission isn’t a large factor yet. If/when it does become a factor that’s when the real containment “game” starts...
- rixrax 7y agoSome other unanswered questions: - recovery time? E.g. How long for the virus to run its course for those that recover. - total number of recovered people - why no babies / kids appear to show up on fatality statistics at least? - how useful are those surgical masks for preventing getting sick / infecting others? - what kind of masks actually provide protection against virus?
- sliken 7y agoThere seems to not be much solid info on this. But I have heard reports of medical workers with masks on getting sick. The leading theory seems to be that eye protection is necessary as well.
- mike_d 7y ago> - how useful are those surgical masks for preventing getting sick / infecting others? After SARS the CDC published updated guidance on masks in relation to Influenza in general. TL;DR is use regular paper masks for general population, hospital staff, and patients. N95 masks for staff doing intake and direct treatment. This addresses the primary problem with N95 masks: hospitals running out. The "N95" rating means it filters 95% of particles 3 microns or larger. Research showed only Influenza particles 4 microns or larger carried enough RNA to replicate successfully.
- s_Hogg 7y agoAny chance of sources for this? I could put a few minds at ease with this info
- mike_d 7y agoHere is a bit of an overview: https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/masks.htm https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/masks.htm You can also read Respiratory Protection for Healthcare Workers in the Workplace Against Novel H1N1 Influenza A: A Letter Report published by National Academies Press for all the details.
- sliken 7y agoKeep in mind that said masks don't protect the eyes, and people wearing said masks have gotten sick.
- samstave 7y agoThere was a comment by someone on a vid i watched who made it sound as though the virus was tacitly allowed to get into the states so they can get a first hand understanding of the real risk/rate etc of the virus.
- ceejayoz 7y agoIf you consider YouTube comments reputable, you're in for a rough run.