5 ms·
From the scattered information I have read, the infection has a very long dormant period (2 weeks), during which it may be contagious, and a high R_0 value of a
by mech1234 7y ago
From the scattered information I have read, the infection has a very long dormant period (2 weeks), during which it may be contagious, and a high R_0 value of at least about 2.0. The R_0 value states how many people will catch the virus from an existing infected person.
These two factors together are scary. I am extremely interested in seeing better data though.
- bjoyx 7y agoHigher than 2.0 "The mean estimate of R0 for the 2019-nCoV ranges from 3.30 (95%CI: 2.73-3.96) to 5.47 (95%CI: 4.16-7.10), and significantly larger than 1. Our findings indicate the potential of 2019-nCoV to cause outbreaks." https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395v1 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395v1
- binaryorganic 7y agoPreprint and not peer reviewed. The WHO had it at 1.4-2.5 a few days ago. https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/23-01-2020-statement-on-the-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-(2005)-emergency-committee-regarding-the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov) https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/23-01-2020-statement-on...
- bjoyx 7y agoEarlier measurements are likely to be biased downward: https://www.academia.edu/41743064/Systemic_Risk_of_Pandemic_via_Novel_Pathogens_-_Coronavirus_A_Note https://www.academia.edu/41743064/Systemic_Risk_of_Pandemic_...
- miketery 7y agoDormant period is up to 2 weeks - not necessarily 2 weeks.
- meristem 7y agoShortest incubation period 1 day, longest 14 days, current average as of Jan 26 2020 was 10 days of incubation.