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One thing I noticed about the recent Egyptian events that few have mentioned. Folks in Egypt gather in Tahir Square and protest for almost 3 weeks, Mubarak stil

One thing I noticed about the recent Egyptian events that few have mentioned. Folks in Egypt gather in Tahir Square and protest for almost 3 weeks, Mubarak still in power. Obama administration on Thursday then basically gives an ultimatum to the senior Egyptian military leadership, and bang, the next day Mubarak has "resigned". Lesson: huge props to the Egyptian people. But also give credit to the US administration. They didn't have to do what they did. Also, the follow-in issue being that probably the biggest reason why we had such strong leverage over Egypt was the billions in military aid we give them annually. To a government run by a dictator. Leverage is good, but backing dictators is bad in the long run, despite short term benefits.

zalew 16y ago
They didn't have to do what they did. Since when the US doesn't have to join/start political changes in strategic regions? Let's wait what will be going on during the upcomming elections - US and EU have to an will take a big part in this game. To a government run by a dictator. Leverage is good, but backing dictators is bad in the long run, despite short term benefits. Oh, come on, a lot of dictatorships overthrown with US help where good buddies before.
- mkramlich 16y ago
  > Oh, come on, a lot of dictatorships overthrown with US help where good buddies before. We agree. I'm not sure why you think your statement contradicts what I said.
  - zalew 16y ago
    Because it doesn't have to be necessarely bad in the long run. Think Iraq.
Joakal 16y ago
Seems to be correlation does not equal causation here. What if Mubarak needed 18 days to move his money offshore or a myriad of other reasons? Obama administration could have simply saw the government deteriorating and joined the crescendo of calls. Joining the bandwagon doesn't give them any more credence than the many other countries and people in the world demanding Mubarak to resign. They all deserve as much credit.
- mkramlich 16y ago
  > Seems to be correlation does not equal causation here. True, not necessarily. But likewise, speculation does not equal evidence. The actual evidence suggests that the US ultimatum to the Egyptian military was a strong force toward Mubarak stepping down, and it correlates more highly timeline-wise than the protestors actions. I could plot it on a graph and it would make it more apparent. Obviously the Egyptian military leadership also had a strong say in what happened. Many things probably had to be a certain way for things to happen like they did. But to imply that the actions of say, the government of New Zealand or Lichtenstein somehow played as strong a role and deserve as much credit as the the US government (or the Egyptian military leadership or the Egyptian protestors) I think is not reasonable based on the reality of it. Giving billions to a dictatorship may be bad but it also gives the giving country a lot of political leverage when they want some kind of change on the receiving end. To somehow hand wave that away as not being significant is not realistic I think.
galactus 16y ago
It is hard to give credit to the US adminstration, considering they had been supporting him for 30 years.
- veidr 16y ago
  Yeah, valid, but this administration has only been here for a couple years. And they got an unpredicted chance, and nudged the objects within reach just so. I think the Obama administration is really good at the 'implement the minimal action that is effective' thing, this being just one more example. Externally, the American administration isn't really due any credit for Egypt's move towards democracy. However, from the American perspective, the fact that they didn't monumentally fuck up the entire situation somehow is something of a relief, on which we're unaccustomed to in recent years, and I think the administration at least deserves credit for that.

zalew 16y ago

They didn't have to do what they did. Since when the US doesn't have to join/start political changes in strategic regions? Let's wait what will be going on during the upcomming elections - US and EU have to an will take a big part in this game. To a government run by a dictator. Leverage is good, but backing dictators is bad in the long run, despite short term benefits. Oh, come on, a lot of dictatorships overthrown with US help where good buddies before.

mkramlich 16y ago
> Oh, come on, a lot of dictatorships overthrown with US help where good buddies before. We agree. I'm not sure why you think your statement contradicts what I said.
- zalew 16y ago
  Because it doesn't have to be necessarely bad in the long run. Think Iraq.

Joakal 16y ago

Seems to be correlation does not equal causation here. What if Mubarak needed 18 days to move his money offshore or a myriad of other reasons? Obama administration could have simply saw the government deteriorating and joined the crescendo of calls. Joining the bandwagon doesn't give them any more credence than the many other countries and people in the world demanding Mubarak to resign. They all deserve as much credit.

mkramlich 16y ago
> Seems to be correlation does not equal causation here. True, not necessarily. But likewise, speculation does not equal evidence. The actual evidence suggests that the US ultimatum to the Egyptian military was a strong force toward Mubarak stepping down, and it correlates more highly timeline-wise than the protestors actions. I could plot it on a graph and it would make it more apparent. Obviously the Egyptian military leadership also had a strong say in what happened. Many things probably had to be a certain way for things to happen like they did. But to imply that the actions of say, the government of New Zealand or Lichtenstein somehow played as strong a role and deserve as much credit as the the US government (or the Egyptian military leadership or the Egyptian protestors) I think is not reasonable based on the reality of it. Giving billions to a dictatorship may be bad but it also gives the giving country a lot of political leverage when they want some kind of change on the receiving end. To somehow hand wave that away as not being significant is not realistic I think.

galactus 16y ago

It is hard to give credit to the US adminstration, considering they had been supporting him for 30 years.

veidr 16y ago
Yeah, valid, but this administration has only been here for a couple years. And they got an unpredicted chance, and nudged the objects within reach just so. I think the Obama administration is really good at the 'implement the minimal action that is effective' thing, this being just one more example. Externally, the American administration isn't really due any credit for Egypt's move towards democracy. However, from the American perspective, the fact that they didn't monumentally fuck up the entire situation somehow is something of a relief, on which we're unaccustomed to in recent years, and I think the administration at least deserves credit for that.