4 ms·
> 27 (66%) patients had direct exposure to Huanan seafood market (figure 1B https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext#
by rdtsc 7y ago
> 27 (66%) patients had direct exposure to Huanan seafood market (figure 1B https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext#fig1 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...). Market exposure was similar between the patients with ICU care (nine [69%]) and those with non-ICU care (18 [64%]). The symptom onset date of the first patient identified was Dec 1, 2019. None of his family members developed fever or any respiratory symptoms. No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases.
The idea I think was that the strain originated at the market, from people handling and possibly consuming bats. But, the description above and figure 1B indicates the currently known patient 0 was not exposed to the market.
Also, what is the chance that a random person in the area has exposure to that market in say a week's time. If it is a central place in the city, and depending on the layout and public transportation, 60% weekly exposure to it might not be unusual for an average citizen there.
It maybe be conspiracy at this point but I find it highly suspicious that out of all the markets in the country, this epidemic started just around the corner from China's first (and only?) biosafety level 4 laboratory https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/25/5/18-0220_article https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/25/5/18-0220_article, which just happened to have been built in response to the 2003 SARS epidemic, and so presumably has been working with those kind of viruses since.
- sanxiyn 7y agoChinese CDC collected environmental samples from the market and some of them tested positive. So it's a little more than "the market happened to be there", although your point about the first patient identified is valid. http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-01/27/c_138735677.htm http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-01/27/c_138735677.htm
- rdtsc 7y ago> Thirty-three of the 585 environmental samples collected from the Wuhan's Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market were found But what’s the chance that sick people would have gone to the market when they were infectious and handled animals, produce, raw meat etc. Having watched footage of some of the wet market I have no doubt it would be place for germs to spread efficiently. But it is still useful to figure out how the whole thing originated.
- pvaldes 7y ago> what’s the chance that sick people would have gone to the market when they were infectious Is not impossible and is a question that must be answered. Good point.
- emayljames 7y agoThe onset of symptoms can take upto 8 days.
- rdtsc 7y agoYeah. And the virus is transmittable before that. I think it's part of what makes it insidious. There is a time when people don't feel sick so they travel around and spread it.
- tonyztan 7y ago"Novel Coronavirus May Not Have Originated in Wuhan Seafood Market": https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/wuhan-seafood-market-may-not-be-source-novel-virus-spreading-globally https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/wuhan-seafood-market... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22157067 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22157067
- MiroF 7y agoWhat sciencemag quotes, > It suggests they had a “most recent common ancestor”—meaning a common source—as early as 1 October. what the quoted link says, > The first case symptoms was recently reported to be December 1, 2019 5, although WHO has previously reported this as December 8, 2019 1. The estimate from BEAST is in agreement with these dates, giving a median date of December 2, 2019. This date is also consistent with prior phylogenetic analyses using fixed rates of the evolutionary rate of 2019-nCoV.