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Never talk about stocks on HN. You will be downvoted by people who missed out on the 10 year bull market and desperately trying to justify their mistake by sayi

by tempsy 7y ago

Never talk about stocks on HN. You will be downvoted by people who missed out on the 10 year bull market and desperately trying to justify their mistake by saying its a rigged scam that is akin to playing roulette at a casino.

WalterBright 7y ago
I've been investing for 40 years. It's the same old story - there's no point in investing now, the market is as high as it will ever go. Fast forward a few years, there's regret one didn't invest, but now the market is as high as it will ever go, so not investing again. Rinse, repeat. A lifetime of missed opportunity.
- lliamander 7y ago
  Surely a recession would be a good time.
  - WalterBright 7y ago
    Only in hindsight. It takes extra large intestinal fortitude to invest in a recession. I've generally lacked such guts.
    - lliamander 7y ago
      Why so? I admit to being a novice in that area, but unless you are worried things are going to get drastically worse (civil war, etc) won't most stocks get better as the economy leaves the recession?
      - robjan 7y ago
        When you invest $100 and you see it go to $90, $75, $50, $40 at some point the majority of people will "cut their losses" and sell. It's human nature.
        WalterBright 7y ago
        I call that "locking in your losses".
- tempsy 7y ago
  Uh I mean clearly that wasn’t true for last 40 years continuously... Dot com bubble, 9/11, 2008 recession
  - WalterBright 7y ago
    You'd still be doing well even if you invested only at the high points. I'm quite good at buying right at the tippy-top just before it dives.
    - tempsy 7y ago
      My point is that people have not been thinking “this is the top” for 40 years straight, not that people wouldn’t make money if they bought and hold through recessions.
      - deleted 7y ago
        [deleted]
      - WalterBright 7y ago
        > My point is that people have not been thinking “this is the top” for 40 years straight My point is the people who don't invest do think that way, and so don't invest. Most investors also think that way, which is why they sell their winners, and hence have below-market returns. Me, I never sell my winners. This seems to be a highly unusual strategy. I'm still holding stock I bought 40 years ago.
      - manigandham 7y ago
        Those same people have trouble recognizing the bottom as well, and generally always have a reason to not invest. For them, I recommend investing after 3 years of a sustained market direction from an inflection point.
        JumpCrisscross 7y ago
        > I recommend investing after 3 years of a sustained market direction from an inflection point Defining an inflection point is subjective, particularly a few years after it. Late 2008 was a crash; 2011 featured lots of hand-wringing around QE, "green shoots" and the like.
- koonsolo 7y ago
  It's all pretty straight forward math, but the problem is that people are not rational. I think it's really a personality trait that you can emotionally distantiate yourself from the numbers. On the buying side, you could spread out the buying over several chucks to "spread the risk", but again numbers show that the optimal strategy is to buy in 1 go, right now.
  - WalterBright 7y ago
    > I think it's really a personality trait that you can emotionally distantiate yourself from the numbers. It's a conscious decision. What I do is think "what would my strategy be if I was investing Monopoly money". When there's a large divergence with what I do with real money, I then try to reconcile the two. The more you can deal with your cognitive biases (such as the sunk cost fallacy) the better your investment decisions will be. Again, this is a conscious choice. You're not a slave to your emotions - that's what makes people different from animals.
jodrellblank 7y ago
Or maybe you're being downvoted because "I did great and you're dumb lolol" is never a good look, or a useful helpful contribution? (or because you're whining about downvotes and attacking the downvoters based on imaginary reasons, which is against the site guidelines).

by tempsy 7y ago

WalterBright 7y ago

I've been investing for 40 years. It's the same old story - there's no point in investing now, the market is as high as it will ever go. Fast forward a few years, there's regret one didn't invest, but now the market is as high as it will ever go, so not investing again. Rinse, repeat. A lifetime of missed opportunity.

lliamander 7y ago
Surely a recession would be a good time.
- WalterBright 7y ago
  Only in hindsight. It takes extra large intestinal fortitude to invest in a recession. I've generally lacked such guts.
  - lliamander 7y ago
    Why so? I admit to being a novice in that area, but unless you are worried things are going to get drastically worse (civil war, etc) won't most stocks get better as the economy leaves the recession?
    - robjan 7y ago
      When you invest $100 and you see it go to $90, $75, $50, $40 at some point the majority of people will "cut their losses" and sell. It's human nature.
      - WalterBright 7y ago
        I call that "locking in your losses".
tempsy 7y ago
Uh I mean clearly that wasn’t true for last 40 years continuously... Dot com bubble, 9/11, 2008 recession
- WalterBright 7y ago
  You'd still be doing well even if you invested only at the high points. I'm quite good at buying right at the tippy-top just before it dives.
  - tempsy 7y ago
    My point is that people have not been thinking “this is the top” for 40 years straight, not that people wouldn’t make money if they bought and hold through recessions.
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
    - WalterBright 7y ago
      > My point is that people have not been thinking “this is the top” for 40 years straight My point is the people who don't invest do think that way, and so don't invest. Most investors also think that way, which is why they sell their winners, and hence have below-market returns. Me, I never sell my winners. This seems to be a highly unusual strategy. I'm still holding stock I bought 40 years ago.
    - manigandham 7y ago
      Those same people have trouble recognizing the bottom as well, and generally always have a reason to not invest. For them, I recommend investing after 3 years of a sustained market direction from an inflection point.
      - JumpCrisscross 7y ago
        > I recommend investing after 3 years of a sustained market direction from an inflection point Defining an inflection point is subjective, particularly a few years after it. Late 2008 was a crash; 2011 featured lots of hand-wringing around QE, "green shoots" and the like.
koonsolo 7y ago
It's all pretty straight forward math, but the problem is that people are not rational. I think it's really a personality trait that you can emotionally distantiate yourself from the numbers. On the buying side, you could spread out the buying over several chucks to "spread the risk", but again numbers show that the optimal strategy is to buy in 1 go, right now.
- WalterBright 7y ago
  > I think it's really a personality trait that you can emotionally distantiate yourself from the numbers. It's a conscious decision. What I do is think "what would my strategy be if I was investing Monopoly money". When there's a large divergence with what I do with real money, I then try to reconcile the two. The more you can deal with your cognitive biases (such as the sunk cost fallacy) the better your investment decisions will be. Again, this is a conscious choice. You're not a slave to your emotions - that's what makes people different from animals.

jodrellblank 7y ago

Or maybe you're being downvoted because "I did great and you're dumb lolol" is never a good look, or a useful helpful contribution? (or because you're whining about downvotes and attacking the downvoters based on imaginary reasons, which is against the site guidelines).