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All things considered, it's highly likely that there are more unreported cases than unreported deaths, which means that the actual mortality rate is lower. Wha
by 9nGQluzmnq3M 7y ago
All things considered, it's highly likely that there are more unreported cases than unreported deaths, which means that the actual mortality rate is lower.
What we need is stats on cured vs died for confirmed cases, but I haven't seen recent figures on that for a while, plus there's an inevitable delay on declaring somebody cured.
- mrb 7y ago«it's highly likely that there are more unreported cases than unreported deaths, which means that the actual mortality rate is lower.» I don't think so, because deaths lag infections. When the outbreak is rapidly growing, if it takes about 5 days for the virus to kill, then even if you knew all the stats perfectly, you actually need to look at the ratio of "deaths as of day D" over "infections as of D-5" to calculate the mortality rate. If you do this math right now (291 infections as of Jan 20, 56 deaths as of Jan 25) you find the mortality rate is 19%. Assuming infections are underreported by a factor of 5, the mortality rate is still high at 19/5 = 3.8%.
- ggm 7y agoThis is highly speculative. What if the under reporting is 10% &c. It's just an exercise in arithmetic, we're going to have to wait for more data.