3 ms·

Based on documented facts and best epidemiological guesses about the novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV, I think it will probably turn into a pandemic affecting most c

by mrb 7y ago

Based on documented facts and best epidemiological guesses about the novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV, I think it will probably turn into a pandemic affecting most countries. Let's review: • human-to-human transmission while asymptomatic, truly the killer feature [1] • 15% mortality rate in first patients (6 of 41 are dead) [2] • cases/deaths doubling every 2 days [public data] • epidemiologist predicts 100x more infections in 10 days [3] Caveats: • mortality rate sample is small (41) and the first patients are likely to be the most severe cases (pre-existing conditions, weak immune systems, etc); so the true rate could be less. • public reports of cases/deaths could be increasing slower than reported because Chinese authorities could be trying to be more truthful (IOW reported numbers are finally catching up w/reality); or alternatively public reports could be lagging reality because authorities could be increasingly hiding the facts or simply be less and less able to report and monitor as Wuhan is turning into a bigger unmanageable chaos every passing day • availability of medicine may limit the outbreak. The pulmonologist who discovered the SARS coronavirus says they have several medicines ready: https://twitter.com/hhh05146721/status/1220953373622534145 https://twitter.com/hhh05146721/status/1220953373622534145 [1] https://thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30154-9/fulltext https://thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(... [2] https://thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext https://thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(... [3] https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1 https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1

secondo 7y ago
I don’t know if you do this intentionally or if Hanlon’s razor, but you intermix source backed claims with made up ones. Nature does not claim the mortality rate is 11%. They do make a comparison to SARS’ mortality rate which was about 11% and argue that Wuhan coronavirus is lower in that regard[1]. [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00166-6 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00166-6
- mrb 7y ago
  You are right, I misremembered Nature's video (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00209-y https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00209-y claimed SARS, not nCoV-2019, had an 11% mortality rate.) I edited the comment.
aaron695 7y ago
> 15% mortality rate in first patients (6 of 41 are dead) [2] This early report I believe is why the leaks (ie Romania and Brazil) from the bio facilities are stating such high numbers. That's the official number they had, so what they thought was true, that's what people are leaking. Data now seems it's maybe 3%. Unless there's something that confirms that early number. China might be able to cover up numbers having it. Covering up dead bodies is very hard. We have Webo and it would have leaked by now.

by mrb 7y ago

secondo 7y ago

I don’t know if you do this intentionally or if Hanlon’s razor, but you intermix source backed claims with made up ones. Nature does not claim the mortality rate is 11%. They do make a comparison to SARS’ mortality rate which was about 11% and argue that Wuhan coronavirus is lower in that regard[1]. [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00166-6 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00166-6

mrb 7y ago
You are right, I misremembered Nature's video (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00209-y https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00209-y claimed SARS, not nCoV-2019, had an 11% mortality rate.) I edited the comment.

aaron695 7y ago

> 15% mortality rate in first patients (6 of 41 are dead) [2] This early report I believe is why the leaks (ie Romania and Brazil) from the bio facilities are stating such high numbers. That's the official number they had, so what they thought was true, that's what people are leaking. Data now seems it's maybe 3%. Unless there's something that confirms that early number. China might be able to cover up numbers having it. Covering up dead bodies is very hard. We have Webo and it would have leaked by now.