3 ms·
That 3.8 may have since been revised downward....looking for the link again.
by SubiculumCode 7y ago
That 3.8 may have since been revised downward....looking for the link again.
- jamesblonde 7y agoJust looking again - Imperial College are saying 2.6. But Neil Ferguson, part of that study from ICL, says on Twitter "we need to plan for the possibility that containment of this epidemic is not possible". https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1221134886825873409/photo/1 https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1221134886825873409/ph...
- Fomite 7y agoOkay...a few notes on R0. 1) Neil Ferguson knows his business, but part of that is knowing that, like economists predicting recessions, there's little penalty for being wrong. I'm sure you can find a quote that's similar from him for any recent outbreak. Why? Because of course we need to plan for that possibility. It's a low risk statement to make. 2) R0 is not a biological constant. It's a combination of contact rates and probabilities of transmission. Neither one of those is actually fixed.
- aaron695 7y agoI think the correct answer is Eric Ding is a typical Twitter user. Nutty. https://mobile.twitter.com/ferrisjabr/status/1220963553911271424 https://mobile.twitter.com/ferrisjabr/status/122096355391127... > Neil Ferguson knows his business, but part of that is knowing that, like economists predicting recessions, there's little penalty for being wrong No. Do you think Nate wasn't penalised for his take on the 2016 US election?
- Fomite 7y agoYeah, Eric Ding is being dragged by epidemiology Twitter for good reason. As for Nate Silver, I'd suggest there are some very different circumstances there than academic and policy forecasting.
- jamesblonde 7y agoDifferent research groups are providing different estimates. But the estimates of estimates (model averaging) indicates that this epidemic has a good chance of sweeping the globe. Containment is needed to prevent it sweeping the globe, so we are at the mercy of the Chinese authorities...
- SubiculumCode 7y agoWe could pause international travel...but no one will make that decision until its already here..so
- Fomite 7y agoMy group's estimated R0 for MERS was very securely in the same ballpark. There's a lot more needed for "sweeping the globe" than a single R0 measurement in a single context (R0 isn't actually a biological constant, despite people treating it like it is).
- beaunative 7y agoMore likely at the mercy of mother nature.