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Epidemiology, as a field, has a harder time in infectious diseases not representing things as exponential growth than it does being surprised by it.
by Fomite 7y ago
Epidemiology, as a field, has a harder time in infectious diseases not representing things as exponential growth than it does being surprised by it.
- Something1234 7y agoPlease explain more? What do they represent it as instead?
- Fomite 7y agoSo the standard type of mathematical model that's used to describe early stage epidemics (such as this one) basically assume exponential growth. It's hard to get the math to stop doing that when a disease reaches a non-exponential stage. That's why you got some bonkers predictions for Ebola - if you let an exponential model run for a year, it's always going to be bad.