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Exponential growth has a way of catching people off guard. Moore’s laws continually surprised business. Viral spread will catch society off guard. It is my opin
by jostmey 7y ago
Exponential growth has a way of catching people off guard. Moore’s laws continually surprised business. Viral spread will catch society off guard. It is my opinion that we must, as a society, go to enormous lengths to stop this virus, beyond quarantining millions in Wuhan.
- RandomBacon 7y agoAnd what are you not-so-subtly suggesting?
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- Fomite 7y agoEpidemiology, as a field, has a harder time in infectious diseases not representing things as exponential growth than it does being surprised by it.
- Something1234 7y agoPlease explain more? What do they represent it as instead?
- Fomite 7y agoSo the standard type of mathematical model that's used to describe early stage epidemics (such as this one) basically assume exponential growth. It's hard to get the math to stop doing that when a disease reaches a non-exponential stage. That's why you got some bonkers predictions for Ebola - if you let an exponential model run for a year, it's always going to be bad.
- dmix 7y agoShutting down all transit and public gatherings for one of the biggest cities in China plus surrounding areas reaching 20M is quite a significant response, during the busiest and most important holiday of the year, is it not?