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>My reaction is that the lab should be suspected.... What are the odds that it would break out in the same city, of all the cities in the world? I dunno what a
by neiman 7y ago
>My reaction is that the lab should be suspected.... What are the odds that it would break out in the same city, of all the cities in the world?
I dunno what are the odds, but do you know what are the odds? If you don't, then you have no base for suspicious.
- mensetmanusman 7y agoIf patient zero really came from Wuhan, the law of large numbers would put you at odds around 6/100 (60 million people in Wuhan in the 1 billion people region)
- onlyrealcuzzo 7y agoThat seems higher than the odds of it being a lab outbreak. Doesn't every major city the world have some lab testing some kind of virus nearby?
- mensetmanusman 7y agoThere is only one of these level-4 labs in China and it is in Wuhan...
- Fomite 7y agoYou also don't need a level 4 lab to work on coronaviruses.
- onlyrealcuzzo 7y agoAnd the outbreak could have, hypothetically, been anything.
- 7952 7y agoIn this kind of argument odds are just a way of making intuition sound objective. Based on one person's experience it may be obvious that accidental release from labs can happen. To another person this will seem more far fetched. So which side of the argument should provide evidence? Why is the parents suspicion any less valid than your lack of suspicion? These kind of questions are particularly difficult when secretive government institutions are involved.