6 ms·

That comment on that page from Kristian G. Andersen is mildly disturbing (http://archive.is/O1vhN http://archive.is/O1vhN)... As Associate Professor, Scripps Re

That comment on that page from Kristian G. Andersen is mildly disturbing (http://archive.is/O1vhN http://archive.is/O1vhN)... As Associate Professor, Scripps Research, Director of Infectious Disease Genomics, SRTI etc etc I assume he knows what he's talking about when he states: "That means that the outbreak was detected almost immediately after the first case, which - given that this is flu season in China - is just amazing. Detecting an outbreak of pneumonia (similar to flu) of a novel coronavirus that fast is truly impressive." I'm not sure I really want to wear this tin-foil hat, but it would certainly be easier to identify a novel coronavirus if it came directly from your own BSL-4 lab in Wuhan https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487 https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to...

platinumrad 7y ago
Absolutely amazing that a completely unsubstantiated conspiracy theory is the top comment.
- fsh 7y ago
  This seems to be a pattern in echo-chamber sites such as hn or reddit. If there is no reliable information, the most outrageous speculation makes it to the top.
- perf1 7y ago
  There is also "Institute of Military Medicine Nanjing Command" that submitted an identical envelope protein 2 years ago [1]. They adapt quickly to avoid detection of the immune system [2]. People argue it would have evolved and not be the same if it didn't came fresh from a lab. [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/protein/AVP78033.1 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/protein/AVP78033.1 (Click "Identical Proteins") [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viral_envelope https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viral_envelope
giarc 7y ago
It could be the result of having the lab in the same city that they could detect it so quickly. Not because the original sample (or any samples) would be tested in the BSL4, but simply because having that lab would attract talent, funding and equipment to reference labs in the same city. The index patient would likely have had a nasopharyngeal swab taken and run against the regular panel of respiratory viruses (influenza, parainfluenza, enterovirus, rhinovirus, metapneumovirus, and coronaviruses). I suspect there would have been a light signal on the coronavirus (perhaps some cross reactivity) and they would have done more investigation to determine what is was.
- Fomite 7y ago
  This is sort of my reaction. It's a little like being astonished that a microbe could be identified so quickly in Boston or Atlanta.
  - chrisco255 7y ago
    My reaction is that the lab should be suspected. They've been doing research on SARS-like viruses from bats for years now. What are the odds that it would break out in the same city, of all the cities in the world? Is the seafood market a scapegoat?
    - Fomite 7y ago
      Tons of people have been doing work on SARS-like viruses from bats for years now. That's what happens when you go from "No one gets infected by cornaviruses" to...SARS. Accidental releases almost always involve people with direct links to the lab in question first. That's a really obvious epidemiological link. "A coronavirus emerged in China and got detected quickly because of solid medical infrastructure" is a way more parsimonious explanation than "Accidental release from a BSL-4 lab."
      - ColanR 7y ago
        > solid medical infrastructure From what I've read, "solid medical infrastructure" doesn't exist in Wuhan.
codingslave 7y ago
I have been wondering the same. It's a bit of a conspiracy theory, but for the last few years different people have called for the lab to be shutdown. There have been confirmed reports of SARS breaks from a lab in Beijing, none of which turned into anything big.
- est31 7y ago
  Don't forget the H1N1 influenza break of 1977. It first appeared in China and is genetically identical to the strains of 1957, while the wild influenza usually mutates year after year. The best explanation is an accidental leak from a Chinese laboratory.
Symmetry 7y ago
Who the heck would want to be using a coronavirus as a biological weapon? Generally you want your bioweapons to have limited or zero human-to-human transmissibility - think anthrax or tularemia or y-pestis. And if you're evil and want to burn down the world you want something that's lethal to people who are conscription age, not just the young and old. This[1] is what I'd expect a bioweapon accident to look like or maybe a multiply drug resistant outbreak of plague. [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sverdlovsk_anthrax_leak https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sverdlovsk_anthrax_leak
- kube-system 7y ago
  Who suggested bio weapon? Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
  - threeseed 7y ago
    I've worked at a facilities department for a university that did infectious disease research. There were incidents of air filters and other protective systems failing and safety processes needing to be executed. It doesn't need to be stupidity but just a random failure. And then China worrying about their international reputation attributing it to a seafood market.
- sdinsn 7y ago
  Note that the Chinese government has admitted they are trying to research bio weapons with high human-to-human transmissibility but engineered to only affect certain groups (like races).
  - darawk 7y ago
    Do you have a source on that?
    - sdinsn 7y ago
      Yes, Zhang Shibo (retired general and fmr. President of the PLA National Defense University) in his book. And a textbook from the NDU called Science of Military Strategy. Both these sources are from 2017.
hristov 7y ago
It could be that their hospitals were just well prepared. Remember we had the SARS outbreak in Africa a couple of years ago and that was a terrible tragic virus, and the hospitals in the entire world were supposed to be prepared to deal with something like this. Well, guess what -- SARS is also a type of corona virus, and perhaps the hospitals in China had ready corona virus tests and used them on everybody that came in with pneumonia symptoms. So perhaps they were just doing their jobs?
yellow_lead 7y ago
I was going to dismiss this as a conspiracy theory, but then I remembered how everything in China is built. Looks good on the outside, but if you look closely, you see terrible design flaws or materials that were cheaped out on. There is another option though, which has nearly been proven by people that have talked to physicians in Wuhan. That is the theory that this virus has been around much longer than initially reported by China. I find this a bit more likely given China's history of censoring things like this.
LorenPechtel 7y ago
I don't think you're in tinfoil hat territory here at all. While it wouldn't be anything amazing for a BL-4 lab to quickly identify that it's novel what is amazing is that the samples would get sent to the lab that fast in the first place. Zebras, not horses! That's going to take the frontline docs realizing that they're dealing with something novel. (This is not at all the same thing as the CDC jumping in very quickly when Ebola landed in the US--that wasn't novel.) Now, I don't think it would have been a weapon. China isn't so stupid as to try to weaponize a coronavirus. However, it does make sense that this might be a leak from studying it. The genetic study really only shows when the population was one, not where it came from.
sneak 7y ago
The immediately preceding sentence is quite important: “Since I believe ~ 50% of the diversity in the tree comes from sequencing errors, the TMRCAs would likely be even more recent - possibly pushing the interval towards the end of December.“ The models to which they were replying put the date range of the most common recent ancestor potentially as far back as October. Please don’t compound the error bars.
rorykoehler 7y ago
It's the only reason I can think of for why they would arrest journalists for reporting on it in the early days.
- fsh 7y ago
  Totalitarian governments routinely arrest journalists for all kinds of reasons.

platinumrad 7y ago

Absolutely amazing that a completely unsubstantiated conspiracy theory is the top comment.

fsh 7y ago
This seems to be a pattern in echo-chamber sites such as hn or reddit. If there is no reliable information, the most outrageous speculation makes it to the top.
perf1 7y ago
There is also "Institute of Military Medicine Nanjing Command" that submitted an identical envelope protein 2 years ago [1]. They adapt quickly to avoid detection of the immune system [2]. People argue it would have evolved and not be the same if it didn't came fresh from a lab. [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/protein/AVP78033.1 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/protein/AVP78033.1 (Click "Identical Proteins") [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viral_envelope https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viral_envelope

giarc 7y ago

It could be the result of having the lab in the same city that they could detect it so quickly. Not because the original sample (or any samples) would be tested in the BSL4, but simply because having that lab would attract talent, funding and equipment to reference labs in the same city. The index patient would likely have had a nasopharyngeal swab taken and run against the regular panel of respiratory viruses (influenza, parainfluenza, enterovirus, rhinovirus, metapneumovirus, and coronaviruses). I suspect there would have been a light signal on the coronavirus (perhaps some cross reactivity) and they would have done more investigation to determine what is was.

Fomite 7y ago
This is sort of my reaction. It's a little like being astonished that a microbe could be identified so quickly in Boston or Atlanta.
- chrisco255 7y ago
  My reaction is that the lab should be suspected. They've been doing research on SARS-like viruses from bats for years now. What are the odds that it would break out in the same city, of all the cities in the world? Is the seafood market a scapegoat?
  - Fomite 7y ago
    Tons of people have been doing work on SARS-like viruses from bats for years now. That's what happens when you go from "No one gets infected by cornaviruses" to...SARS. Accidental releases almost always involve people with direct links to the lab in question first. That's a really obvious epidemiological link. "A coronavirus emerged in China and got detected quickly because of solid medical infrastructure" is a way more parsimonious explanation than "Accidental release from a BSL-4 lab."
    - ColanR 7y ago
      > solid medical infrastructure From what I've read, "solid medical infrastructure" doesn't exist in Wuhan.

codingslave 7y ago

I have been wondering the same. It's a bit of a conspiracy theory, but for the last few years different people have called for the lab to be shutdown. There have been confirmed reports of SARS breaks from a lab in Beijing, none of which turned into anything big.

est31 7y ago
Don't forget the H1N1 influenza break of 1977. It first appeared in China and is genetically identical to the strains of 1957, while the wild influenza usually mutates year after year. The best explanation is an accidental leak from a Chinese laboratory.

Symmetry 7y ago

Who the heck would want to be using a coronavirus as a biological weapon? Generally you want your bioweapons to have limited or zero human-to-human transmissibility - think anthrax or tularemia or y-pestis. And if you're evil and want to burn down the world you want something that's lethal to people who are conscription age, not just the young and old. This[1] is what I'd expect a bioweapon accident to look like or maybe a multiply drug resistant outbreak of plague. [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sverdlovsk_anthrax_leak https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sverdlovsk_anthrax_leak

kube-system 7y ago
Who suggested bio weapon? Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
- threeseed 7y ago
  I've worked at a facilities department for a university that did infectious disease research. There were incidents of air filters and other protective systems failing and safety processes needing to be executed. It doesn't need to be stupidity but just a random failure. And then China worrying about their international reputation attributing it to a seafood market.
sdinsn 7y ago
Note that the Chinese government has admitted they are trying to research bio weapons with high human-to-human transmissibility but engineered to only affect certain groups (like races).
- darawk 7y ago
  Do you have a source on that?
  - sdinsn 7y ago
    Yes, Zhang Shibo (retired general and fmr. President of the PLA National Defense University) in his book. And a textbook from the NDU called Science of Military Strategy. Both these sources are from 2017.

hristov 7y ago

It could be that their hospitals were just well prepared. Remember we had the SARS outbreak in Africa a couple of years ago and that was a terrible tragic virus, and the hospitals in the entire world were supposed to be prepared to deal with something like this. Well, guess what -- SARS is also a type of corona virus, and perhaps the hospitals in China had ready corona virus tests and used them on everybody that came in with pneumonia symptoms. So perhaps they were just doing their jobs?

yellow_lead 7y ago

I was going to dismiss this as a conspiracy theory, but then I remembered how everything in China is built. Looks good on the outside, but if you look closely, you see terrible design flaws or materials that were cheaped out on. There is another option though, which has nearly been proven by people that have talked to physicians in Wuhan. That is the theory that this virus has been around much longer than initially reported by China. I find this a bit more likely given China's history of censoring things like this.

LorenPechtel 7y ago

I don't think you're in tinfoil hat territory here at all. While it wouldn't be anything amazing for a BL-4 lab to quickly identify that it's novel what is amazing is that the samples would get sent to the lab that fast in the first place. Zebras, not horses! That's going to take the frontline docs realizing that they're dealing with something novel. (This is not at all the same thing as the CDC jumping in very quickly when Ebola landed in the US--that wasn't novel.) Now, I don't think it would have been a weapon. China isn't so stupid as to try to weaponize a coronavirus. However, it does make sense that this might be a leak from studying it. The genetic study really only shows when the population was one, not where it came from.

sneak 7y ago

The immediately preceding sentence is quite important: “Since I believe ~ 50% of the diversity in the tree comes from sequencing errors, the TMRCAs would likely be even more recent - possibly pushing the interval towards the end of December.“ The models to which they were replying put the date range of the most common recent ancestor potentially as far back as October. Please don’t compound the error bars.

rorykoehler 7y ago

It's the only reason I can think of for why they would arrest journalists for reporting on it in the early days.

fsh 7y ago
Totalitarian governments routinely arrest journalists for all kinds of reasons.