2 ms·
Based on preliminary contagion rates thus far (R0=3.8), and assuming SARS-like fatality rates (25%), the death toll over the next month in China alone is likely
by koheripbal 7y ago
Based on preliminary contagion rates thus far (R0=3.8), and assuming SARS-like fatality rates (25%), the death toll over the next month in China alone is likely to be in the tens of thousands - estimates are between 40,000 and 120,000.
...for just the next ONE MONTH.
They are definitely not overreacting. The only thing that can reduce the R0 level now is transit bans, public gathering bans, and quarantines.