4 ms·

Bye Bye, Long Tail

37 points by sammville 16y ago

InclinedPlane 16y ago
I don't think this article's thesis is supported by facts. Either that or the author grossly misunderstands the concept of the "long tail".
- brc 16y ago
  It's clear he doesn't understand what 'long tail' means. I think he conflates the term to mean 'small retailers' when in reality the long tail is the large amount of low volume items that consumers really want. The example he gives is an example of demand moving out of the tail and into the head, where Amazon and Walmart are interested. Amazon and Walmart both stock a wide variety of items, with very low depth of stock in each category. From books to rifles, Wal Mart only carries the big sellers. Amazon does offer the long tail in many categories, but below a certain scale the small time deep dive inventory people will still sell on Amazon marketplace.
slapshot 16y ago
He has a point that the long tail of middlemen is getting crushed. There's no reason to order routine consumer goods from anywhere other than Amazon.com or a handful of other sites. He gives a shout-out to retailers that offer improved shopping experiences. I think there's still room there: I routinely order parts from a small car-parts company that has the exact list of parts I need to fix my old car, and makes it incredibly easy to find exactly what I need. If anything, the supplier is a value-added retailer because they offer advice, tips, and will email me if I order something really stupid (parts for the wrong year or model). And he's completely wrong as to unique/custom products; the experience there is almost the opposite. Hello long tail of unique, customized, and personalized goods. I routinely buy customized stuff from Etsy and similar artsy aggregators. It is often stuff that defines the long tail: there is exactly one of each item, but thousands of similar goods. A producer who can fill this need at scale has plenty of opportunity. I routinely buy letterpress goods straight from the press. Again, it's often customized or personalized, and usually they will sell a few hundred units at most. Again, opportunity in the long tail if you can find a way to fulfill at scale. I buy t-shirts and similar from an ever-evolving collection of online shirt retailers. Some might use the same back-end fulfillment, but I know from my local screenprint shop that there is still a huge (and growing) business in short-run screenprinting.
- bigiain 16y ago
  I think the t-shirt case is a great example of where Amazon/Walmart type of purchasing power _won't_ always win. I don't want the t-shirt with he witty slogan or amusing image that Amazon or Walmart are selling by the thousands, I want to be the only guy in my city wearing that gag. I'm also never going to buy coffee beans from Walmart, I'm going to buy them from one of my local roasters, who can often tell me the names of the farmers who produced it as well as the level of roast used and the reasoning behind choosing that roast level for this particular bean. Commodities will end up being bought/sold as commodities, but not all purchases are commodities. And some peoples commodities (like coffee and t-shirts) are other peoples "specialty goods".
  - foljs 16y ago
    > I don't want the t-shirt with he witty slogan or amusing image that Amazon or Walmart are selling by the thousands, I want to be the only guy in my city wearing that gag. Yes, you, me and 100 other hipsters. So one can build a niche business about it. Or then you have a player emerge like Threadless --in which point the designs again sell by the thousands. > I'm also never going to buy coffee beans from Walmart, I'm going to buy them from one of my local roasters, who can often tell me the names of the farmers who produced it as well as the level of roast used and the reasoning behind choosing that roast level for this particular bean. Ugh, hipster alert.
rst 16y ago
Good points on how to compete with Amazon, if you choose to compete with Amazon. (You do it on service, because you'll never beat them on price.) But I'm not sure what that has to do with the original "long tail" thesis --- that applied more to authors, musicians, etc., who are more likely to be selling through Amazon than establishing their own retail operation on the side. (And if they are doing direct retail, they're almost certainly selling goods that aren't available through Amazon at all.)
kongqiu 16y ago
Linkbait headline. The "long tail" is still very much out there. As slapshot notes, Etsy has opened up a completely new "long tail" that shows no sign of slowing down. As is, say, airBnB...
gexla 16y ago
The good news is that you don't have to compete with Amazon. You can sell your own things through Amazon and you will always be able to attract traffic via informational portals and link to Amazon to sell products which are the subject of those portals and make money via the affiliate program. Otherwise, I can't really argue with the article. I always look to Amazon first to buy things. Even if I'm buying locally I will look to Amazon first for reviews and pricing.
RP_Joe 16y ago
He really does not understand Internet marketing. Long tail is not dead and the reason Walmart will never dominate the Internet is the first law of Internet marketing. Build trust often and early.
brc 16y ago
I just had a similar experience. While looking to buy a $400 item, I found someone with the item in stock who was willing to ship (note: not in the USA, many merchants will not ship internationally, including Amazon on big-ticket items). After some back-and-forth, the order was placed, and this small online retailer had my business. But then - 5 days after the order was placed - an email came back. We want an international wire transfer instead of mastercard payment. No way, I said - a wire transfer is a black hole where I have no comebak. I offered a PayPal payment instead. No, they said, wire transfer or nothing. I cannot for the life of me understand this logic. It's not like I'm buying and shipping to Nigeria or some other known fraud location. If it was about mastercard fees, I would have happily paid a 2 or 3% surcharge. It still would have been cheaper than having to drive to my bank, sit in a queue, organise forms and pay $20 for a wire transfer. So the answer was no credit card, no sale, and they didn't get the sale. The sale instead went to a combination of Amazon and a third-party freight forwarding company. The combined price was about the same as the original merchant. Why anyone would offer to ship internationally and then request a wire transfer is beyond me. Either shun international purchases (eg zappos) or welcome them properly.
- netcan 16y ago
  The problem is that in markets where goods are resalable, a very large portion of sales are fraudulent. Being out of country makes the fraud likelihood even higher. With paypal or mastercard payments, merchants have no protection because of chargebacks. Basically, after a fraud/non delivery/stolen CC allegation CC companies and paypal will pull that money from the merchant's account and fully refund the customer pretty much immediately and without question. It's usually impossible or impractical to reverse that once it has happened, regardless of what evidence you have. Police will not investigate and the CC company won't hear your case. I have had a client that personally delivered and item and got a signature. When the chargeback claim came (non delivery), he recorded a phone conversation with the recipient where she admitted (she was "tricked") to the fraud. The police told him (after a lot of badgering) that they get about 100X as many claims as they can investigate. Basically, for all but relatively high stakes cases, they just log the complaint and move on. There really is no way for retailers to protect themselves.
bugsy 16y ago
Weird article. Long tail of products is definitely here to stay with the internet. Weird things, out of print books, fancy japanese pens I can't get at the office supply store, movies that were never released in the states, ingredients to strange ethnic dishes, repair parts for my antique whazzit, it's all on the internet. A lot of the small places have things cheaper than amazon too if you look around enough. Or save time and go with amazon.

37 points by sammville 16y ago

I don't think this article's thesis is supported by facts. Either that or the author grossly misunderstands the concept of the "long tail".

brc 16y ago
It's clear he doesn't understand what 'long tail' means. I think he conflates the term to mean 'small retailers' when in reality the long tail is the large amount of low volume items that consumers really want. The example he gives is an example of demand moving out of the tail and into the head, where Amazon and Walmart are interested. Amazon and Walmart both stock a wide variety of items, with very low depth of stock in each category. From books to rifles, Wal Mart only carries the big sellers. Amazon does offer the long tail in many categories, but below a certain scale the small time deep dive inventory people will still sell on Amazon marketplace.

slapshot 16y ago

He has a point that the long tail of middlemen is getting crushed. There's no reason to order routine consumer goods from anywhere other than Amazon.com or a handful of other sites. He gives a shout-out to retailers that offer improved shopping experiences. I think there's still room there: I routinely order parts from a small car-parts company that has the exact list of parts I need to fix my old car, and makes it incredibly easy to find exactly what I need. If anything, the supplier is a value-added retailer because they offer advice, tips, and will email me if I order something really stupid (parts for the wrong year or model). And he's completely wrong as to unique/custom products; the experience there is almost the opposite. Hello long tail of unique, customized, and personalized goods. I routinely buy customized stuff from Etsy and similar artsy aggregators. It is often stuff that defines the long tail: there is exactly one of each item, but thousands of similar goods. A producer who can fill this need at scale has plenty of opportunity. I routinely buy letterpress goods straight from the press. Again, it's often customized or personalized, and usually they will sell a few hundred units at most. Again, opportunity in the long tail if you can find a way to fulfill at scale. I buy t-shirts and similar from an ever-evolving collection of online shirt retailers. Some might use the same back-end fulfillment, but I know from my local screenprint shop that there is still a huge (and growing) business in short-run screenprinting.

bigiain 16y ago
I think the t-shirt case is a great example of where Amazon/Walmart type of purchasing power _won't_ always win. I don't want the t-shirt with he witty slogan or amusing image that Amazon or Walmart are selling by the thousands, I want to be the only guy in my city wearing that gag. I'm also never going to buy coffee beans from Walmart, I'm going to buy them from one of my local roasters, who can often tell me the names of the farmers who produced it as well as the level of roast used and the reasoning behind choosing that roast level for this particular bean. Commodities will end up being bought/sold as commodities, but not all purchases are commodities. And some peoples commodities (like coffee and t-shirts) are other peoples "specialty goods".
- foljs 16y ago
  > I don't want the t-shirt with he witty slogan or amusing image that Amazon or Walmart are selling by the thousands, I want to be the only guy in my city wearing that gag. Yes, you, me and 100 other hipsters. So one can build a niche business about it. Or then you have a player emerge like Threadless --in which point the designs again sell by the thousands. > I'm also never going to buy coffee beans from Walmart, I'm going to buy them from one of my local roasters, who can often tell me the names of the farmers who produced it as well as the level of roast used and the reasoning behind choosing that roast level for this particular bean. Ugh, hipster alert.

rst 16y ago

Good points on how to compete with Amazon, if you choose to compete with Amazon. (You do it on service, because you'll never beat them on price.) But I'm not sure what that has to do with the original "long tail" thesis --- that applied more to authors, musicians, etc., who are more likely to be selling through Amazon than establishing their own retail operation on the side. (And if they are doing direct retail, they're almost certainly selling goods that aren't available through Amazon at all.)

kongqiu 16y ago

Linkbait headline. The "long tail" is still very much out there. As slapshot notes, Etsy has opened up a completely new "long tail" that shows no sign of slowing down. As is, say, airBnB...

gexla 16y ago

The good news is that you don't have to compete with Amazon. You can sell your own things through Amazon and you will always be able to attract traffic via informational portals and link to Amazon to sell products which are the subject of those portals and make money via the affiliate program. Otherwise, I can't really argue with the article. I always look to Amazon first to buy things. Even if I'm buying locally I will look to Amazon first for reviews and pricing.

RP_Joe 16y ago

He really does not understand Internet marketing. Long tail is not dead and the reason Walmart will never dominate the Internet is the first law of Internet marketing. Build trust often and early.

brc 16y ago

I just had a similar experience. While looking to buy a $400 item, I found someone with the item in stock who was willing to ship (note: not in the USA, many merchants will not ship internationally, including Amazon on big-ticket items). After some back-and-forth, the order was placed, and this small online retailer had my business. But then - 5 days after the order was placed - an email came back. We want an international wire transfer instead of mastercard payment. No way, I said - a wire transfer is a black hole where I have no comebak. I offered a PayPal payment instead. No, they said, wire transfer or nothing. I cannot for the life of me understand this logic. It's not like I'm buying and shipping to Nigeria or some other known fraud location. If it was about mastercard fees, I would have happily paid a 2 or 3% surcharge. It still would have been cheaper than having to drive to my bank, sit in a queue, organise forms and pay $20 for a wire transfer. So the answer was no credit card, no sale, and they didn't get the sale. The sale instead went to a combination of Amazon and a third-party freight forwarding company. The combined price was about the same as the original merchant. Why anyone would offer to ship internationally and then request a wire transfer is beyond me. Either shun international purchases (eg zappos) or welcome them properly.

netcan 16y ago
The problem is that in markets where goods are resalable, a very large portion of sales are fraudulent. Being out of country makes the fraud likelihood even higher. With paypal or mastercard payments, merchants have no protection because of chargebacks. Basically, after a fraud/non delivery/stolen CC allegation CC companies and paypal will pull that money from the merchant's account and fully refund the customer pretty much immediately and without question. It's usually impossible or impractical to reverse that once it has happened, regardless of what evidence you have. Police will not investigate and the CC company won't hear your case. I have had a client that personally delivered and item and got a signature. When the chargeback claim came (non delivery), he recorded a phone conversation with the recipient where she admitted (she was "tricked") to the fraud. The police told him (after a lot of badgering) that they get about 100X as many claims as they can investigate. Basically, for all but relatively high stakes cases, they just log the complaint and move on. There really is no way for retailers to protect themselves.

bugsy 16y ago

Weird article. Long tail of products is definitely here to stay with the internet. Weird things, out of print books, fancy japanese pens I can't get at the office supply store, movies that were never released in the states, ingredients to strange ethnic dishes, repair parts for my antique whazzit, it's all on the internet. A lot of the small places have things cheaper than amazon too if you look around enough. Or save time and go with amazon.