5 ms·
>- aggregate benchmark means some average of predictions from wall street investors, which is not the "state of the art" to beat, you should beat the best perfo
by foldingmoney 7y ago
>- aggregate benchmark means some average of predictions from wall street investors, which is not the "state of the art" to beat, you should beat the best performing funds.
They're not beating funds, they're more accurately predicting company earnings than 'Wall Street analysts' -- people who work for investment banks and write stock notes for clients, not people who actually invest.
And the experiment assumes that the job of an analyst is to accurately predict earnings, which is frequently not the case -- analysts often lowball their estimates so that the companies they follow can 'beat and raise'.
- jacques_chester 7y agoIt seems from the outside that analysts jiggle the number that the company gives them and then the company jiggles their own mechanisms to hit the agreed-to number. What tips this is off is absurdly narrow forecast intervals. If I know that Company X's deal size is $10 million, then in what universe is it fair and reasonable for a forecast to be +/- a million bucks?