> From the perspective of decision making, what matters is the difference in expected value of different decisions that I make now, from T=0, not some time in t

> From the perspective of decision making, what matters is the difference in expected value of different decisions that I make now, from T=0, not some time in the past that I can't affect. That still depends on the type of decision and context. If you are talking about "should I play video game or should I study" that is a type of decision where valuing individual effort is absolutely beneficial. If you are talking about making a decision based on evaluating other people/companies based on their life outcomes, then awareness of the role of luck is absolutely beneficial. You need to look beyond the results and also evaluate the decision making and luck that went into obtaining those results. It's not an either or sort of thing. When we over-estimate the role of decision making in producing outcomes, we end up with a worse model of the world that will lead to worse decision making.