4 ms·

No realistic scenario involves only some states doing this while others don’t, though it’s worth pointing out that Maine and Nebraska are not winner-take-all.

by zamfi 7y ago

No realistic scenario involves only some states doing this while others don’t, though it’s worth pointing out that Maine and Nebraska are not winner-take-all. You may find the national interstate popular vote compact interesting. [1] Basically each state in the compact pledges their delegates to the national vote winner, but only once enough states to guarantee the presidency have agreed to do so. That said, currently it seems that any “popular vote” measure that takes away power from small states (like this one, or changing the senate or house) would disadvantage republicans, so it’s probably a nonstarter. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Intersta...

AlgorithmicTime 7y ago
Probably illegal without congessional approval
Analemma_ 7y ago
> That said, currently it seems that any “popular vote” measure that takes away power from small states (like this one, or changing the senate or house) would disadvantage republicans, so it’s probably a nonstarter. This isn't actually true, for a couple reasons: 1. Small states are already ignored in Presidential elections because most of them are solidly red or blue (see [0] and note how many small states have no visits at all). Pretty much the only small state that swings in elections is New Hampshire, so I suppose New Hampshire loses a bit by transition to a popular vote, but no other state really does. I'm prepared to bite that bullet. 2. Right now there are tons of suburban and rural Republicans in California and New York whose votes essentially don't count at all in the current system, but would in a popular vote. People who have studied the potential effects of abandoning the Electoral College have found that it doesn't actually provide an unbalanced benefit to either party, though I concede that as long as Republicans think it would hurt Republicans, it won't happen. [0]: https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/campaign-events-2016 https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/campaign-events-2016
- khuey 7y ago
  It would be a much different debate if Kerry had won Ohio (and thus won the Presidency without winning the popular vote) in 2004 but at the moment the Electoral College has given Republicans two of the last four elections where they lost the popular vote so I don't think it's just perception that it would hurt them.

by zamfi 7y ago

AlgorithmicTime 7y ago

Probably illegal without congessional approval

Analemma_ 7y ago

> That said, currently it seems that any “popular vote” measure that takes away power from small states (like this one, or changing the senate or house) would disadvantage republicans, so it’s probably a nonstarter. This isn't actually true, for a couple reasons: 1. Small states are already ignored in Presidential elections because most of them are solidly red or blue (see [0] and note how many small states have no visits at all). Pretty much the only small state that swings in elections is New Hampshire, so I suppose New Hampshire loses a bit by transition to a popular vote, but no other state really does. I'm prepared to bite that bullet. 2. Right now there are tons of suburban and rural Republicans in California and New York whose votes essentially don't count at all in the current system, but would in a popular vote. People who have studied the potential effects of abandoning the Electoral College have found that it doesn't actually provide an unbalanced benefit to either party, though I concede that as long as Republicans think it would hurt Republicans, it won't happen. [0]: https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/campaign-events-2016 https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/campaign-events-2016

khuey 7y ago
It would be a much different debate if Kerry had won Ohio (and thus won the Presidency without winning the popular vote) in 2004 but at the moment the Electoral College has given Republicans two of the last four elections where they lost the popular vote so I don't think it's just perception that it would hurt them.