3 ms·

Isn't this overreacting? In the US, the common flu has killed up to 61,000 people each year. This new virus has so far only killed 15 as of 2020/1/22. https:/

Isn't this overreacting? In the US, the common flu has killed up to 61,000 people each year. This new virus has so far only killed 15 as of 2020/1/22. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

mc32 7y ago
It depends on the lethality and whether or not they have vaccines to counter the threat posed. Also, we understand the flu. This virus and how it spreads and so on isn’t well understood yet, so I think caution is in order.
Anon84 7y ago
Yes and no. 1. This is a new virus, so you're less likely to have even partial immunity (in contrast, your immune system has been fighting variants of the flu virus for decades). 2. These are still early days so the numbers of infected/dead aren't reliable but the mortality seems to be a couple orders of magnitude higher. What this means is that if it spreads to as many people as the yearly flu virus does every year probably 10-100x more people will die. 3. It's good to keep an eye out whenever a new virus makes the species jump (as this one just did). It will likely fizzle out, but you never know.
freewizard 7y ago
You have to look at the CFR(case fatality rate) and how wide it will be spreading. For flu, case fatality rate is usually <0.1% [1]. As comparison, SARS in 2003 is 15% [2]. This time it's still developing (17 of 444 as of today[3]) so hard to know for sure, but nature of this 2019-nCoV virus is close to SARS. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_pandemic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_pandemic [2] https://www.who.int/csr/sars/archive/2003_05_07a/en/ https://www.who.int/csr/sars/archive/2003_05_07a/en/ [3] http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-01/22/c_138727379.htm http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-01/22/c_138727379.htm
tidenly 7y ago
The unknown quantity factor of it is what's scary. How lethal and fast it will spread, etc.
koheripbal 7y ago
Based on preliminary contagion rates thus far (R0=3.8), and assuming SARS-like fatality rates (25%), the death toll over the next month in China alone is likely to be in the tens of thousands - estimates are between 40,000 and 120,000. ...for just the next ONE MONTH. They are definitely not overreacting. The only thing that can reduce the R0 level now is transit bans, public gathering bans, and quarantines.

mc32 7y ago

It depends on the lethality and whether or not they have vaccines to counter the threat posed. Also, we understand the flu. This virus and how it spreads and so on isn’t well understood yet, so I think caution is in order.

Anon84 7y ago

Yes and no. 1. This is a new virus, so you're less likely to have even partial immunity (in contrast, your immune system has been fighting variants of the flu virus for decades). 2. These are still early days so the numbers of infected/dead aren't reliable but the mortality seems to be a couple orders of magnitude higher. What this means is that if it spreads to as many people as the yearly flu virus does every year probably 10-100x more people will die. 3. It's good to keep an eye out whenever a new virus makes the species jump (as this one just did). It will likely fizzle out, but you never know.

freewizard 7y ago

You have to look at the CFR(case fatality rate) and how wide it will be spreading. For flu, case fatality rate is usually <0.1% [1]. As comparison, SARS in 2003 is 15% [2]. This time it's still developing (17 of 444 as of today[3]) so hard to know for sure, but nature of this 2019-nCoV virus is close to SARS. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_pandemic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_pandemic [2] https://www.who.int/csr/sars/archive/2003_05_07a/en/ https://www.who.int/csr/sars/archive/2003_05_07a/en/ [3] http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-01/22/c_138727379.htm http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-01/22/c_138727379.htm

tidenly 7y ago

The unknown quantity factor of it is what's scary. How lethal and fast it will spread, etc.

koheripbal 7y ago

Based on preliminary contagion rates thus far (R0=3.8), and assuming SARS-like fatality rates (25%), the death toll over the next month in China alone is likely to be in the tens of thousands - estimates are between 40,000 and 120,000. ...for just the next ONE MONTH. They are definitely not overreacting. The only thing that can reduce the R0 level now is transit bans, public gathering bans, and quarantines.