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I tend to agree with you. Land and housing are still very cheap in rural towns in the midwest - they've moved no more than 2% / year or close to the reported in
by hiram112 7y ago
I tend to agree with you. Land and housing are still very cheap in rural towns in the midwest - they've moved no more than 2% / year or close to the reported inflation rate.
So why are homes so expensive in urban areas, including now tier 2 and tier 3 cities, and not just NYC, DC, and SF?
Look at our population growth. In the 'good times' of the 1960s, we had 180M people. Now we have double that in two generations, or the difference between Boomers and Millenials approximately. In 1960, places like SF and Arlington, VA weren't rural farmland, they were still urban areas. We now have higher density in the large cities due to jobs having moved there, so we probably have 3x the number of people desiring homes in the same area as we had in 1960.
And families are smaller now. In 1960, you'd have a family of 5 in one house. Now you need two houses for the two 2.5 / person families.
So essentially we've probably got 4x the demand for the homes close to working centers, along with rising base prices due to far more women in the workforce. Add perpetual low interest rates, underreported inflation, and I'm surprised houses aren't at SF levels in every city yet.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history_of_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history_of_the_Uni...
- ch4s3 7y agoMany of those cities are only in the last few years returning to their peak populations. They certainly aren’t more dense, but there are fewer units of housing available now. In many places lots of housing was torn down, or multi family homes were turned into single family homes. The cost is directly related to the fact that it is defectors illegal to build new homes in the most economically vibrant zip codes.
- refurb 7y agoThis is a great point. Go back to the 70's, San Francisco was losing population. By the 90's it had dropped from a peak of 775K (1950) to 670K (1980). It's now ~880K, so only 14% higher than 70 years ago.